The YouGov poll asked previous people who answered who they voted for. While this is not an exit poll, an 8% margin is a clear majority against Scottish independence.Â
GBP/USD is holding on to high ground, trading at 1.6415. Update: the pair is already moving higher to 1.6433 and the move continues. Liquidity is relatively low at these hours, making the impact of the breaking news higher.
Update:
- Initial signs of landslide No result send GBP/USD to higher range
Another update: the pound continues higher above 1.6440. The next level is 1.6540, but the pound may wait for some real results to come in before making this extra big leap.
More about the YouGov poll:
The survey involved 1,828 people after they voted today, together with the postal votes of 800 people
So while the scale is larger than earlier polls and was made after people actually voted, it’s important to stress it is not an exit poll: it did not count people coming out from the voting booths.
Voting has ended at at 21:00 GMT. There are no exit polls. The next resistance line is 1.6440. We noted that a No vote is much more priced in than a Yes vote.
Nevertheless, there are reasons to be very careful with polls this time, as the nature of the vote is different.
Real results are expected only much later.
More on the big event and see the chart below to see how the news impacts the pound, which was already moving up.
- Timetable for forex traders
- GBP/USD levels to watch out for
- The case for Yes – 5 reasons why the polls could possible be totally wrong on Scotland
- What the betting odds imply for GBP/USD
- GBP/USD could retest 2010 lows if Scotland votes to leave UK
- Latest podcast, which also includes the Scottish referendum
