European and Asian market and S&P futures have resumed their slide, as geopolitical tensions between North Korea and the U.S. spiked again overnight after Pyongyang responded to the latest set of warnings by Trump, revealing a plan to fire four ballistic missiles at Guam by mid-August. Gold gains for a third day while Brent rose above $53.
Following de-escalation attempts by Rex Tillerson, and a NYT report that Trump’s “fire and fury” statement had been improvised, markets saw a tentative recovery in risk appetite in overnight U.S. and early Asian trading, but a risk off mood returned again as Asian stocks fell back and London, Frankfurt and Paris dropped 0.5-1.2 percent in Europe, spooked by North Korea’s latest response to Trump, which dismissed as a “load of nonsense” warnings by President Trump that it would face “fire and fury” if it threatened the United States and in which a general outlined a detailed plan on state TV to fire four Hwasong-12 ICBM at Guam by mid-August, sending virtually every Asian market lower. “Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him” North Korea said of its diplomacy with Trump.
Asia took the brunt of tonight’s selloff, with Japan’s Topix index ended less than 0.1 percent lower, while South Korea’s Kospi index slid 0.4 percent, adding to a 1.1 percent drop on Wednesday. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell 1.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.1 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5 percent.  The won dropped to a four-week low and was trading 0.6 percent down, while the Japanese yen rose 0.2 percent to 109.80 per dollar, the strongest in eight weeks.
“We saw a tentative recovery in risk appetite yesterday from the sell off inspired by North Korea but I think, justifiably that move is fading a little bit today,” said Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy.
With the escalating war of words rumbling on, Europe’s German bund yield held near six-week lows. U.S. and British equivalents were also trading a touch above Wednesday’s six-week lows. “We would currently be careful with a whiff of risk aversion in the air and, by extension, also stay away from shorts in the rates market,” RBC’s global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik said.
As a result of the ongoing diplomatic fiasco, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for a second day of declines, following declines in markets from Hong Kong to Tokyo to Sydney, which also pressured S&P index futures fell. The greenback was firmer against most of its G-10 peers. Japan’s yen edged higher, extending yesterday’s increase as havens including gold continued to find support. Oil held gains above $49 a barrel as U.S. production eased and crude inventories extended declines.
“The North Korea situation is still unstable and investors are controlling risk and taking profit after recent gains,†said Sam Chi Yung, a Hong Kong-based senior strategist at SouthChina Financial Holdings Ltd.
Geopolitical tensions also pushed euro-area volatility sharply higher, with the Stoxx Index surging 27% since Tuesday’s close as European stocks added to their losses. The Stoxx 600 falls 0.6%, set for biggest back-to-back declines in three weeks, as the DAX hits lowest since April 21, down 2% so far this week. All European industry groups declined, with miners and energy shares faring the worst.Utilities outperform selloff, sector is recommended by HSBC as a defensive refuge should European equities undergo a correction
In currencies, as noted above, South Korea’s won led losses in emerging Asian currencies as tensions over the peninsula heightened.
“USD/Asia should be somewhat supported today given the rise in geopolitical risk as North Korea and Trump keep up their back and forth,†said Julian Wee, a senior market strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “The weakness in equity markets suggests that the incendiary rhetoric has spooked the markets.â€
Traders added to positions in haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc, and pushed up the dollar index by unwinding some of the recent bets on the euro; the yen rose for a third day, outperforming all other Group-of-10 currencies.Unrelated to Korea, the NZD was the notable underperformer overnight after the RBNZ monetary policy decision. The rate decision itself was met with choppy price action. However, the downside largely stemmed from comments by RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott who stated that “NZD needs to adjust lower”, which saw NZD break through 0.7300, and was trading at 0.726 last. In China, the onshore yuan rises for 10th straight day vs trade-weighted basket to highest in nearly five months as People’s Bank of China strengthens fixing by most since June. As Bloomberg reports, as global investors turn increasingly risk averse amid tense relations between North Korea and the U.S., China’s currency is becoming an unlikely winner.
The yuan is the best performer among 31 major peers since Friday, rising 1.1 percent to 6.6605 against the greenback. That compares with a 1.5 percent tumble by the South Korean won or a 0.5 percent drop by the Australian dollar. While China is North Korea’s key ally, the nation’s central bank has been supporting the yuan with a series of strong fixings, and bearish bets against the currency have receded after it rose above 6.7 per dollar.
