The headlines say February 2014 wholesale sales improved, and inventories jumped. This data series is very noisy, and has been on a roller coaster of one good month / one bad month. This whole data series was revised this month so talking about relative change to last month is pointless. Consider that the three month rolling averages for unadjusted sales is accelerating, but unadjusted inventory levels unusually jumped and are above the range for non-recessionary periods.
Econintersect Analysis:
- unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 0.2% month-over-month
- unadjusted sales year-over-year growth is up 3.2% year-over-year
- unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 1.4% year-over-year
- the 3 month rolling average of unadjusted sales accelerated 0.3% month-over-month, and up 5.2% year-over-year
- unadjusted inventories up 4.6% year-over-year (accelerated 1.1% month-over-month), inventory-to-sales ratio is 1.33 which is historically is very high for non-recessionary periods for Februarys.
US Census Headlines:
- sales up 0.7% month-over-month, up 3.1% year-over-year
- inventories up 0.5% month-over-month, inventory-to-sales ratios were 1.17 one year ago – and are now 1.19.
- the market expected an inventory change of 0.3% to 0.7% (consensus 0.6%) versus the headline 0.7% growth.
Year-over-Year Growth – Wholesale Sales – Unadjusted data (blue line), Inflation Adjusted Data (red line), and 3 month Rolling Average of Unadjusted data (yellow line)
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The short term year-over-year trend for sales is now fluctuating in a narrow range after an improving period beginning in early 2013.
Wholesale Sales – Unadjusted – $ Millions
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Wholesale sales have hit new monthly record highs 32 of the last 36 months (using current dollars). Overall, the inventory-to-sales ratios (a rising ratio is an indicator of economic slowing) above the normal range for Februarys historically.
