Image Source:
Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment
that the best trade opportunities for the week were likely to be:
The weekly profit of 0.31% equals 0.15% per asset. Meanwhile, last week’s key takeaways were:
The Week Ahead: Oct. 28 – Nov. 1, 2024
The coming week’s schedule is much busier than last week and also includes very important data items, such as US Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE Price Index data. Incoming data are as follows:
Monthly Forecast for October 2024
(Click on image to enlarge)I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair would rise in value during October. Its performance so far is as follows:
Weekly Forecast for Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024
I will make no weekly forecast this week, as there were no unusually strong directional price movements over the trading period, which is the basis of my weekly trading strategy.The Japanese yen is by far the most volatile major currency, and it looks likely to stay that way. Last week, the US dollar was the strongest major currency, while the Japanese yen was the weakest.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
Technical Analysis – US Dollar Index
Last week, the US Dollar Index printed a bullish candlestick with a bit of an upper wick, which rejected the resistance level at 104.15. The dollar has been rising for a few weeks, and it continued to rise last week, breaking through at least one key resistance level.The price is above its level from three months ago, but below its level from six months ago, suggesting a long-term mixed trend in the greenback, which suggests uncertainty. It is also worth noting that despite the strong bullish momentum, the price is again trading within a new consolidating triangle chart pattern. This is suggestive of ultimately ranging behavior.This week’s outlook for the US dollar is very unclear, as there are fundamental and sentimental reasons for its recent strengthening. The Federal Reserve is taking a more hawkish approach. However, that could change if we see weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls, JOLTS, or GDP data this week.I would recommend trading the US dollar long this week unless there is surprising US economic data that pushes the Fed into a more dovish approach.(Click on image to enlarge)
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY currency pair behaved very similarly to the US Dollar Index last week, printing a firm bullish candlestick that closed quite near the high of its range.The price rose for the fourth consecutive week, and it is now above its level from three months ago and also very close to overtaking its level from six months ago, which would put it in a bullish long-term trend. This area of resistance centered on the JPY152.75/JPY153.00 range, therefore, looks likely to be pivotal.There has been a lot of volatility in the Japanese yen, which continues to be the case. There is also quite a lot of movement in the US dollar, so this currency pair remains at the heart of the Forex market and will likely be attractive to day traders.I think if we see a solid bullish breakout beyond the JPY153.00 level, this currency pair might become interesting on the long side.(Click on image to enlarge)
XAU/USD
I have been bullish on gold for weeks, as it has continued to make bullish breakouts to new highs. The upwards trend which got strong a few weeks ago has produced a very profitable trade on the long side for trend traders.Many assets reversed strongly last week against a resurgent US dollar, but the fact that gold continues to make new record highs against the US dollar is telling and shows strength in gold as a particular asset.Despite gold’s reputation as a risk hedge, historically, the price of gold has tended to be positively correlated with major stock market indices. We have seen the broad S&P 500 Index also breakout to new record highs, so the correlation appears to be in action right now.Gold could be knocked by a decline in risk appetite over the coming week if US jobs or GDP data disappoint. However, sometimes in these cases gold can hold its value and won’t fall by much, so it really does look like a good trade, or at least, one of the best trades in the market right now.I still see gold as a buy, but only following a daily close at a new record high price. In fact, there is a big quarter number at $2,750 just above that, so I would like to see a close above that level first.(Click on image to enlarge)
S&P 500 Index
Despite making a new record high the week before last, the rise in this major stock index seems to have run out of momentum, at least for the time being. The price action during the second half of last week looks bearish, so a further fall over the short-term looks quite likely.Despite these short-term bearish factors, we have seen major US equity indices gain nicely this year, and recent weeks have seen the wider S&P 500 Index outperform the Nasdaq 100 Index, suggesting a broader-based stock rally.There is now little over one week to go to the US Presidential election, and opinion polls and betting markets are suggesting that a Trump victory is the most likely outcome. If the polls and markets remain this way over the coming days, we may well see the stock market rise again. New Presidents tend to trigger a rally in the US stock market, and the rally after Trump’s election was notably strong, and this could happen again. If Harris wins, that could also boost the market.Poor jobs or US GDP data this week, on the other hand, might produce a stronger short-term decline. Due to the long-term bullish picture and the upcoming US election, I will be eager to enter a new long-trade here if we get a daily close at a new all-time high above 5,878.(Click on image to enlarge)
Bottom Line
I see the best trading opportunities this week as:
More By This Author:Weekly Forex Forecast – Sunday, Oct. 6EUR/USD Forex Signal: Retreat From 1-Year High PriceEUR/USD Forex Signal: Consolidation Below $1.1187
