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We hit our $98.50 goal line on oil and that’s up $6,500 per contact from $105 at the beginning of the month, where we went heavily short. When oil was at $102.50, on Feb 21st, I said to our Members:
Oil – You can play it either way off the lines.  The reason I play short is because, over the long-term (3 months), I don’t see oil sustaining $100. So, if oil goes to $105 on a violent pop, and I’m down $2,500 per contract, I don’t mind doubling down to raise my net to $103.75 and, if it goes up to $106.25, I don’t mind doubling down again to average a very big position at $105 average and sitting on it for as long as it takes to get real. If I were betting oil up and it dropped $2.50, however, I’d feel like a complete moron and I’d have no desire to DD and then I’d be hopelessly out of position and miserable and if it dropped another $2.50, I’d only feel stupider.  That’s why I prefer to play the side I have conviction on but, believe me, in the course of my own 10,000 hours – I learned that the hard way! Â
Realistically, if you think direction doesn’t matter – you probably shouldn’t be playing with Futures – other than very quick nickel and dime trading off support and resistance lines – which is how most people do play them (the beautiful sheeple).  Thank goodness for them, they provide the “liquidity” that goes into our pockets! Â
Oil peaked out on March 3rd at $105.22 over the Ukraine issue.  That’s still not resolved but, as we expected in the morning post, it still wasn’t enough to sustain $105 on oil.  In fact, our first trade of the morning in Member Chat was the USO April $38 puts at $1.25 and, already, they closed yesterday at $2.40 – up 92%, but they should look better this morning and we’ll take that 100% gain and run when it comes so quickly. Â
