Today is a big day for the markets; it’s the US NFP report which can serve as an important evidence for possible hawkish Fed in September or maybe even raising rates at that event, if figures are strong. Expectations stand at 222k so any number above that figure will likely see a very strong USD against the other major currencies, particularly against the EUR and JPY which will likely be pressured down as stocks could bounce. A number around 200K or lower will send USD down, but we guess it will be only temporary so we would not be surprised by a spike up on EURUSD and sharp turn later in the US session.
Technically speaking, we see the dollar in an uptrend against many currencies, but the one pair that should be tracked very closely today is USDJPY which already shows a corrective move down from 125.00, labeled as wave four, so a new push higher is anticipated. We see room for 125.30, maybe even 125.50 in the sessions ahead. 124.00 is the invalidation level that needs to hold.
USDJPY 1h Elliott Wave Analysis
