Dollar/yen felt quite comfortable under 105, but nothing lasts forever. After the move above the round number, the team at Citi discusses the next levels and targets:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
As we head higher in US yields; prepare for a Fed rate hike in December; retain some possibility of renewed Japan stimulus and expect a US Equity market “melt up†into year end, the picture looks constructive for a push higher in USDJPY.
We have already confirmed one double bottom with a daily close above 104.32, and that pattern target gains towards 108.50. Such a move, if seen would open up the possibility of a larger double bottom forming /55 day moving average break on a close above 107.40-50
Such a close, if seen, would suggest extended gains towards 114-116.
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At this point, while we think it is very possible to see such a move, we do not see anything that inclines us to believe that USDJPY could go much higher than these levels. This could therefore leave USDJPY open to renewed losses thereafter as we saw in 1991,1999, 2004 and again in 2007 after similar bounces.
*Citi maintains a long USD/JPY from 104.55.
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