USD/CAD Outlook March 10-14

The Canadian dollar was almost unchanged at the end of the week, closing slightly below the 1.111 line. The upcoming week is very quiet week, with just two releases. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Canadian Employment Change disappointed on Friday, countering some strong data from Building Permits and Ivey PMI. US numbers were mixed, but Nonfarm Payrolls ended the week on a high note, hitting a three-month high.

Updates:

• Mar 13, 14:36: The Russia-Ukraine crisis – no longer a cause for: Equities waffled in the red for the majority of yesterday’s session, but managed a late-day push higher to propel the…
• Mar 12, 14:50: Shaky Financial markets drive investors away from high-yield assets: Risk sentiment in financial markets was notably shaky throughout the majority of yesterday’s North American session, with investors electing to…
• Mar 12, 10:35: USD/CAD getting comfortable in high range: The Canadian dollar is unable to recover from the disappointing Canadian jobs report. In addition to the painful job losses,…
• Mar 11, 15:05: Fears grip markets over Chinese data: The first trading day of the week was fairly restrained for equity investors, with the major North American indices being…
• Mar 10, 14:17: Traders seek safe haven assets amid Russia-Ukraine tensions: Sturm und drang continues to rule the financial markets this morning, where bourses are reacting badly to signs that Russia is…

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

1. Housing Starts: Monday, 12:15. Housing Starts has dropped for three consecutive readings, raising concerns about the health of the housing sector. The January reading came in at 180 thousand, short of the estimate of 184 thousand. The markets are expecting an improvement in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 190 thousand.
2. NHPI: Wednesday, 12:30. The New Housing Price Index is an important gauge of activity in the housing industry. The index continues post very small gains, with the January reading showing a gain of just 0.1%. The estimate stood at 0.2%. The markets are expecting some improvement in the February release, with the estimate standing at 0.3%.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD opened the week at 1.11064 and touched a high of 1.1118, as resistance at 1.1124 (discussed last week) held firm. The pair then dropped to a low of 1.0955 but couldn’t consolidate these gains and closed at 1.1085.

Live chart of USD/CAD:

new TradingView.widget({
“width”: 610,
“height”: 400,
“symbol”: “FX:USDCAD”,
“interval”: “60”,
“toolbar_bg”: “#E4E8EB”,
“hide_side_toolbar”: false,
“allow_symbol_change”: true
});

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.1617. This line marked a high point for the pair in July 2009, at which time the Canadian dollar posted a rally in which USD/CAD dipped below the 0.94 line.

1.1535 provided key support back in early 2007. It has been a resistance line since July 2009.

1.1369 fell in October 2008 as the US dollar posted sharp gains, climbing as high as the 1.21 level.

1.1124 is the next line of resistance. It held firm last week but is a weak line.

The key psychological barrier of 1.10 continues to see action. It was briefly breached last week as the Canadian dollar showed some strength, but remains in place in a support role.

1.0945 faced pressure as USD/CAD lost ground late in the week before bouncing higher. The line is currently providing strong support.

1.0853 is the next support line. 1.0723 was a cap in mid-2010, before the US dollar tumbled and dropped all the way into 0.93 territory.

1.0660 saw a lot of activity in the second half of December and continues to provide strong support.

The final support line for now is 1.0523. It was a peak back in November 2011 and has provided support since late November 2013.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

The Canadian economy continues to struggle, as weak employment numbers and low inflation numbers weigh on the economy. Market sentiment towards the US economy remains upbeat, although recent releases have been mixed. The Fed will likely continue to trim QE this week, which is bullish for the US dollar.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs