The story repeats itself over and over again: retail sales rise only +0.1% in October and last month was flat after the downwards revision. Core sales are up only 0.2% with a downwards revision. The control group is up only 0.2% with a slight upwards revision and ex autos up only +0.3%. Small misses all around, with producer prices falling short of expectations as well.
The US dollar is weaker after the publication but certainly not falling apart. It seems that the yen and the pound are the biggest winners but nothing is huge.
US retail sales were expected to rise 0.3% m/m in October after a poor +0.1% in September. Core sales carried expectations for a rise of 0.4% after -0.3%, the control group for +0.4% after -0.1% and the figure excluding gas and autos was expected to rise +0.4% after 0%. Revisions are quite normal here.
Towards the release, the US dollar was stable.
More: EUR/USD shows us it’s vulnerable
Data misses on all fronts
- PPI m/m -0.4% vs. +0.2% exp.
- Core PPI m/m -0.3% vs. +0.1% exp.
- PPI y/y -1.6% vs. -1.2% exp.
- Core PPI -0.1% vs. +0.5% exp.
- Retail sales +0.1% vs. +0.3% exp.
- Core retail sales +0.2% vs. +0.4% exp.
- Retail control group +0.2% vs +0.4% exp.
- Retail ex gas/autos +0.3% vs. +0.4% exp.
Currency reaction
- EUR/USD traded around 1.0760 after the slightly disappointing GDP figures. The pair rises to 2.0784 afterwards.
- GBP/USD was around 1.5220, relatively upbeat and 1.5260 afterwards.
- USD/JPY was sliding around 122.70 and down to 122.56.
- USD/CAD flirted with the 1.33 line amid falling oil prices and slips to 1.3290.
- AUD/USD traded around 0.7130, still enjoying the upbeat jobs report in Australia. and stays around 0.7140
- NZD/USD was around 0.6530 and ticks higher to 0.6537.
All in all, the rise in the dollar is minimal, with majors gaining more than commodity currencies.
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