US retail sales disappoint – forget about a hike –

US retail sales disappoint with a drop of 0.3%, worse than expected. The small downwards revision does not help. The control group is down 0.1%, much worse than +0.3% expected and with a downwards revision.

Other figures are poor as well. The USD is falling

US retail sales were expected to rise by 0.1% m/m on the headline figure in August after remaining flat in July. The control group carried expectations for a rise of 0.3% after remaining flat. Lots more data is released at the same time.

If anybody still believes that the Fed will raise rates in less than a week from now, this bulk release of figures is the last chance to receive upbeat data that may justify a hike. Brainard was very dovish earlier this week.

Data (updated)

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: previous 2, expected 1, actual: 12.8
• Jobless claims: prev. 259K, exp. 265K, actual: 260K – so far two beats, but it goes downhill from here.
• PPI m/m: prev. -0.4%, exp. +0.1%, actual: 0%
• Core PPI: prev. -0.3%, exp. +0.1%, actual: +0.1%
• PPI y/y: prev. -0.2%, exp. +0.1%, actual: 0%
• Core PPI y/y: prev. 0.7%, exp. 1%, actual: 1%
• Retail sales: prev. -0.1%, revised to 0%, exp. -0.1%, actual -0.3%
• Core sales: prev. -0.3%, downgraded to -0.4%, expected +0.2, actual -0.1%.
• Retail control group: prev. 0%, revised down to -0.1%, exp. +0.3%, actual -0.1%.
• Retail ex gas/autos: previous -0.1%, actual -0.%
• NY Manufacturing: previous -4.21, exp. -1%, actual -1.99
• Current account: prev. -124.7, exp. -120.5, actual -119.9 billion.

We have another key figure tomorrow. See how to trade the consumer sentiment figure with EUR/USD

Currency reaction:

• EUR/USD is bouncing higher, reaching a high of 1.1283 before settling.
• GBP/USD is at 1.3214, rising from the earlier slide after a late reaction to the unchanged BOE decision.
• USD/JPY is at 102.25, ending the move higher.
• USD/CAD is at 1..3160, rejected from high resistance.
• AUD/USD is testing the top of the range at 0.75.
• NZD/USD is at 0.73. NZ GDP was mixed

More: 10 Reasons Why The Fed Will Not Hike This Year – Danske

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