The Consumer Price Index in the US remained unchanged. A rise of 0.2% was expected. The annual level of inflation now stands at 1.4%, from 1.7% last month. The fear of deflation triggered QE2. Chance of QE3 have now risen a bit, but remain slim.
Core CPI rose by 0.1%. A rise of 0.2% was predicted. The Federal Reserve eyes this figure. The annual level is at 2.1% – very close to the 2% target.
Also from the US, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to -5.85 in August, much worse than last month’s positive figure of 7.39 and much worse than a marginal slide to 6.5 points that was expected.
EUR/USD dropped during the day to around 1.2280. The pair is now on the rise, at 1.2290. USD/JPY continued the upwards momentum and reached 79 – it is now falling to 78.80.
The justification for QE2 was to avoid deflation – a situation where prices fall, disincentivize consumption, hurt the economy, rinse repeat. Yesterday, producer prices were firmer than expected and so were the retail sales numbers – this lowers the chance of recession and of QE3.
The US will publish TIC flows, industrial production and capacity utilization.
