The US Dollar (USD) adds to gains for a fifth consecutive day when looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY), which can be seen as the benchmark for the Greenback’s performance. China’s Housing Minister said on Thursday that the country will open a 4 trillion Yuan (CNY) funding to support its domestic housing market, a quite lower number than the initial 6 trillion Yuan communicated on Monday, and adds to momentum for the United States (US) former President Donald Trump to take more lead in the polls in the run-up to the November 5 Presidential Elections day. The US economic calendar is full on Thursday. Besides the usual weekly Jobless Claims, and several leading will be released about the US economy and activity. In case that is not enough, is set to deliver another 25 basis point (bps) rate cut according to consensus, with the main question if President dares to deliver a hawkish rate cut while Europe’s economic engine, Germany, is severely stuttering. Daily digest market movers: ECB and Lagarde on deck
- The weekly Jobless Claims:
- Initial Claims for the week ending on October 11 are expected to remain stable at 258,000, as the previous week.
- The Continuing Claims for the week ending on October 4 are expected to increase to 1.87 million from the prior 1.861 million.
- IT will be interesting to see how the hurricanes in Florida and the Gulf region have influenced the claims numbers.
- September Retail Sales:
- The monthly headline Retail Sales is expected to rise by 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in the previous reading.
- The monthly Retail Sales, excluding cars and transportation, should grow at a steady pace of 0.1%.
- The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for October is expected to tick up to 3.0, coming from 1.7 in September.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Trump already won? (DXY) is rallying with more and more headlines and media channels, starting to pick up on a possible Trump win in the US presidential elections in November. It looks like that trading desks are starting to hedge for that event, with the risk that the US Dollar will continue to rally into the event and can only reverse once it is done, no matter who won. Thus, a big attention point is that the DXY might become a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” event in the coming weeks. A firm resistance is ahead at 103.79, which aligns with the 200-day SMA. Above that, there is a small gap before hitting the pivotal level at 103.99 and the 104.00 big figure. Should Trump further lead in the polls, a rapid swing up to 105.00 and 105.53 could be on the cards. On the downside, the 100-day SMA at 103.20 and the pivotal level at 103.18 are now acting as support and should prevent the DXY from falling lower. With the Relative Strength Index in overbought territory, a test on this level looks granted. Further down, the 55-day SMA at 101.84 and the pivotal level at 101.90 should avoid further downside moves. (Click on image to enlarge)More By This Author:US Dollar Extends Rally After Trump Promises More Tariffs US Dollar Orbits Around Key Level While Traders Doubt Fed’s Outlook Crude Oil Posts Fresh Monthly High As Markets Weigh Up Likelihood Of Fresh Escalation In Middle East
