US Dollar Commentary – Wednesday, Nov. 29

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 DXY PlungesThe US Dollar was seen plunging to its lowest level since early August yesterday as traders digested the latest Fed commentary. Fed’s Waller commented yesterday that he was encouraged by the slowing of the US economy and believed that Fed monetary policy was in the right place to bring inflation down to target. Indeed, Waller noted that if the economy continued to slow, he could see inflation reaching a place over the next three–five months where the Fed might start cutting rates.
 Dovish RisksWhile other Fed commentary on the day was more hawkish than this, these comments were notable given that  Waller has traditionally been a hawk and also because these were the first set of comments recently to explicitly mention the Fed cutting rates.
 GDP Up NextThe drop in USD was met with widespread volatility across markets yesterday fuelling a spike in risk assets. In FX, commodity currencies were the biggest beneficiaries with AUD and NZD soaring. While we are seeing a little giveback today, the upcoming prelim Q3 GDP report poses big risks for USD. If data comes in weaker-than-forecast this should fuel a fresh wave of USD selling through the middle of the weaker, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations.
 Technical ViewsDXY(Click on image to enlarge)The sell off in DXY has seen the index breaking below the 103.48 level most recently. With momentum studies bearish, the focus is on a continuation lower while below this level with the 101.22 level the next support to watch. To the topside, bulls would need to clear 104.95 to alleviate the bearish bias. More By This Author:Silver Commentary – Tuesday, November 28Bitcoin Commentary – Tuesday, Nov. 28Eurozone Commentary – Tuesday, Nov. 28