The surprise vote in favor of an exit from the European Union has sent markets around the world into a state of turmoil and the pound has dropped to a low not seen in over 30 years. The process of the UK divorcing itself from the major European body has not even begun yet and there are already murmurs of regret by 1.6 million Britons who have now signed a petition on Parliament’s website requesting a second referendum.
A new vote is unlikely to happen and while it is true that the referendum is non-binding and the U.K.’s next prime minister is under no legal obligation to act on the results, this option has been ruled out by the EU’s other leaders. It would be extremely difficult to ignore the views of the 17.4 million people who voted to leave and so a Brexit is definitely on its way.
Trigger Lisbon Treaty
The process of separation is not an immediate one, however. The first step is for the U.K. to activate Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, putting in place a two-year timeline for formal talks. Prime Minister David Cameron has said that it was the responsibility of his successor to trigger the treaty but a new leader won’t be selected for at least another three months. Boris Johnson, the favorite to take over, indicated Friday that there is no rush to formally start negotiations and the longer the wait, the more the negotiating power remains with Britain. Once the treaty is triggered the advantage switches back to the other 27 countries so the timing of Article 50 is quite crucial. It seems likely therefore, that the U.K. won’t be leaving before the end of 2018 at the earliest.
The triggering of the negotiations does not have to be done in any formal manner and can either be a letter to the president of the European Council or an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting. One EU official even pointed out that it “…doesn’t even have to be written. He can just say it.”
