One of the key themes that I presented at the start of 2014 was the notion that capital would begin shifting abroad. Attractive valuations compared to U.S. equities, ongoing stimulative measures in Europe as well as “carry trade†funding of higher-yielding assets contributed to several high conviction purchases.
Chief among them? iShares MSCI New Zealand (ENZL). While smaller nations often get overlooked when it comes to investor asset allocation, I argued that New Zealand presented a unique opportunity to participate in one of the fastest growing economies in the developed world. In addition, iShares MSCI New Zealand (ENZL) did not depend largely on global demand of basic materials the way that iShares MSCI Australia (EWA) did. In fact, ENZL still represents respectable diversification across a wide range of economic segments, including health care, consumer goods and industrials.
Fortunately, the thesis extended beyond impressive economic fundamentals and desirable diversification. Currency traders worldwide sell low-yielding currencies to raise capital for acquisitions of higher-yielding currencies and higher-appreciating assets. At the beginning of the year, I anticipated that Abenomics in Japan would further erode the yen such that institutional traders would sell (or short) Japan’s currency to acquire the New Zealand dollar and/or buy New Zealand equities.
In truth, that may or may not have happened. While the yen dropped precipitously in 2013, it has actually snapped back a bit in 2014. The Japanese yen still remains low enough for borrowers to keep acquiring higher-yielding currencies and/or funds like ENZL. However, if the yen manages to move significantly higher and the Bank of Japan cannot “walk it back,†institutional traders may be forced to dump New Zealand stocks in a flash to avoid paying bank loans on an appreciating yen.
That said, the fortunes of iShares MSCI New Zealand (ENZL) are not tied solely to the fate of Japan’s currency. As it turns out, New Zealand recently hiked rates for the third consecutive time in 2014 on bullish expectations for its economy. Its official cash rate is now 3.25%. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently slashed its overnight lending rate and decided to charge other banks money (i.e. negative deposit rate) for storing cash in ECB vaults. Consequently, the euro hit a 13-month low against the “kiwi†(New Zealand dollar).
