Is the post-Cold War global boom over?
Since the fall of Bolshevism, the world has seen remarkably sustained growth in international cooperation, brought about by freer trade and new technologies. Financial assets have generally performed well, increasing prosperity across most of the world. There were just two major interruptions—the tech crash in 2000, and the financial crash in 2008.
The world warmed up fast after the Cold War. Prices of most commodities rose, despite major corrections:
- Oil climbed from $15 per barrel to as high as $140. It collapsed with the crash, but climbed back swiftly to near $100.
- Corn climbed from $2 to as high as $8 before sliding to $3.60.
- Copper climbed from 80 cents to $4.30 before sliding to $3.
- Gold shot up from $350 to $1,900 before pulling back toward $1,200.
So what’s happening with commodity prices now? Is this just another correction, or has the game really changed?
Commodity prices have risen against a backdrop of falling interest rates:
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The US ten-year Treasury yielded 8% as recently as 1994, and as low as 2.1% during the crash. Recently the consensus target was 4%—before fears of outright deflation drove it to 2.4%. Bond yields have fallen below 1%. Even the bonds of the southern members of the Eurozone yield Treasury-esque returns.
Remarkably, those low yields persist even as major geopolitical outbursts have ended the mostly benign post-Cold War era. The foundations of global economic progress are being shaken by geopolitical earthquakes from Russia and Ukraine to Syria and Iraq, where a new caliphate has been proclaimed.
It seems bizarre, but the world is heading toward a revival of both the Cold War and the Ottoman Empire.
Unfortunately, these concurrent crises are occurring at a time when the great democracies’ leaders bear scant resemblance to those leaders responsible for the end of the Cold War and the launch of global cooperation and free trade: Reagan, Thatcher, and George HW Bush. Mr. Obama won his nomination by voting against the invasion of Iraq. He ran on the promise of ending wars, not starting them. Now, faced with sinking popularity in an election year that could give Republicans complete control of Congress, he naturally fears dragging America into the ISIS chaos—or Ukraine.
