The S&P 500 gained nearly 1.2% over its previous week’s close, ending the first full trading week of November 2023 at .In doing so, it continued toward its mean and is now about a .In terms of the bigger picture, the move was accompanied by the reversal of the October 2023 spike in long term U.S. Treasury yields. Since they peaked on 27 October 2023, there has only been one day where they’ve increased, which came on Thursday, 9 November 2023, coinciding with the only decrease in stock prices over the period.Here’s the for the ‘s alternative future chart. Compared to last week’s edition, we’ve extended the redzone forecast range through 15 November 2023to compensate for the effect of more recent volatility in stock prices.(Click on image to enlarge)The most interesting headlines of the week came on Thursday, 9 November 2023 and are related to a disappointing auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries that was apparently handicapped by the hacking of a Chinese bank, whose absence from participation briefly caused long term interest rates to rise that day. Follow the links below to find out more, although that’s just one of several themes recorded in the week’s market moving headlines.Monday, 6 November 2023
- Oil up 1.5% as Saudi Arabia and Russia stick to supply cuts
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Fed’s Cook says rising yields not tied to monetary policy outlook
- Fed’s Cook says hopes current policy setting is adequate to settle inflation
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Fed’s Neel Kashkari not convinced rate hikes are over -WSJ
- Kashkari: Fed has more work to do to control inflation
- Fed report shows US loan officers see tighter credit, weaker demand
- China’s trade slump likely eased further in October – Reuters poll
- Exclusive-China’s clashing priorities behind rare money market distress
- China’s youth employment generally stable, continues to improve – state media
- Japan service activity posts slowest growth this year – PMI
- Indonesia’s Q3 GDP growth weakest in 2 years, exports slump further
- BOJ chief sees progress towards hitting price goal, warns of uncertainty
- BOJ members saw no need for new yield control tweaks -Sept minutes
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Euro zone recession fears harden as surveys show grim start to Q4
- German service sector activity contracts in October – PMI
- Wave of cancellations in German housing construction at new high -Ifo
- ECB must remain vigilant, be ready to hike rates again, Holzmann says
Tuesday, 7 November 2023
- Fed is making progress on inflation, Goolsbee says
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Fed’s Waller: Q3 GDP a “blowout” number that warrants watching
- Fed’s Waller calls Q3 US GDP growth a ‘blowout,’ but newer data suggest slowdown
- Fed’s Bowman says she expects further policy tightening will be needed
- Fed’s Logan: watching if financial conditions tight enough
- China’s imports unexpectedly grow as demand makes cautious comeback
- German industrial output falls further than forecast in September
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Eurozone economy to contract or stagnate in Q4, ECB’s De Guindos says
- ECB’s De Guindos warns higher deposit costs will hit banks’ lending income
- ECB must be ‘vigilant’ as inflation may surprise, Nagel says
Wednesday, 8 November 2023
- US 30-year mortgage rate plunges by most in nearly 16 months – MBA
- Fed’s Cook says geopolitical tensions could change US economic outlook
- Fed’s Williams says US central bank’s policymaking now more strategic
- BOJ Ueda signals chance of exit from easy policy before real wages rise
- ECB must keep rates at or near 4% through 2024 to get inflation down -IMF
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Euro zone consumers raise inflation expectations in headache for ECB
- Euro zone retail sales fall in Sept, exposing weak consumer demand
- ECB’s Makhlouf says new risks emerging as others fade
- ECB policymakers keen to cool euphoria over inflation drop
- S&P 500, Nasdaq barely extend win streaks as investors eye yields, Fed comments
Thursday, 9 November 2023
- Brent oil finishes over $80 after this week’s sell-off
- Fed’s Jefferson: high uncertainty could justify aggressive policy
- Fed reverse repos fall under $1 trillion for first time since August 2021
- Fed’s Powell: biggest mistake would be to fail to control inflation
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Fed’s Powell: “Not confident” policy is tight enough, supply-side help may be finished
- Analysis-Some investors see Powell’s hawkish lean as response to looser financial conditions
- Marketmind: Powell pushback puts cloud 9 beyond reach
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China’s consumer prices dip back into decline amid limp demand
- Price wars during Chinese shopping fest expose consumer woes
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BOJ may end negative rates in January, ex-central bank executive says
- BOJ’s Ueda says will tread carefully in exiting easy policy
- BOJ debated groundwork for future easy-policy exit at Oct meeting
- BOJ, Japan Inc need to prepare for ‘life with interest rates’, lobby head says
- https://www.reuters.com/article/ecb-policy-lane/ecb-balance-sheet-must-shrink-but-not-too-much-lane-idUSKBN3240LG
- ECB still sees inflation risks so rate cut talk too early – vice president
- Traders now see Fed starting rate cuts later in 2024
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Stocks Tumble, Yield Surge After Catastrophic 30Y Auction Stops With Biggest Tail On Record As Foreign Demand Craters
- Ransomware attack on China’s biggest bank disrupts US Treasury market
Friday, 10 November 2023
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US drillers cut oil rigs to lowest since Jan 2022 for second week -Baker Hughes
- Oil prices up 2% but headed for third weekly decline
- Fed’s Daly: Still too soon to say rate hike cycle is over -CNBC
- China can raise 2024 budget deficit ratio to spur growth – central bank adviser
- Japan to top up fiscal loans, investments to boost supply chain -draft
- Microsoft hits all-time high
The CME Group’s ‘s projections now anticipates the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% into mid-June (2024-Q2). Starting from 12 June (2024-Q2), investors expect deteriorating economic conditions will force the Fed to start a series of quarter point rate cuts at six-to-twelve-week intervals through the end of 2024, which is six weeks later than expected a week ago.The ‘s estimate of real GDP growth for the current quarter of 2023-Q4 bounced up to +2.1% from the +1.2% annualized growth it projected a week ago and back in the ballpark of where it was two weeks ago.Image credit: Bing Image Creator. : “A digital art concept illustrating rising stock prices and falling bond yields. 4k.” 10 November 2023.More By This Author:The S&P 500 Reverts Toward The Mean Teen Jobs Rise In October 2023 New Home Prices Falling Slowly, Still Fully Unaffordable