Economic illiteracy is running rampant. It would be a huge inflationary mistake if we mass deported them all.
Data from the BLS chart by Mish Employment Chart Notes
How Many Illegals Are There?
The above stats are from the . So, let’s call it 14 million on the low end and 18 million on the high end.Shortages If All Foreign Born Employment Removed
We would have a shortage of 24 million employees if we booted all foreign-born employees.No one is proposing that. Some are here legally and some are even US citizens.The problem is the BLS definition includes both legal and undocumented immigrants.Let’s approach this from a different angle.Migration Policy Immigrant Age Estimates
From the , We can makes some reasonable estimates of labor shortages under the “Export Them All” demand.Assume 16 million illegal immigrants, 90 percent are working age and 25 percent are unemployed.That’s 16 * 0.90 * 0.75 = 10.8 million working.Here are the numbers at 18 million.18 * 0.90 * 0.75 = 12.2 million working.I am reasonably confident of the 90 percent working age number, less so the employment percentage.But even higher levels of employment are possible. So let’s do one more number crunch assuming a 20 percent unemployment rate.18 * 0.90 * 0.80 = 13.0 million working.The higher the numbers of immigrants and the more who are working, the bigger the problem.My ballpark range is 9.0 to 13.0 million workers.Given an unemployment level of 7 million, if you deport 9 to 13 million workers, you are going to have one hell of a labor shortage problem coupled with a massive jump in inflation. Competition for those jobs would explode.I am surprised no economist, at least that I have seen, has taken a stab at what this might do to the labor force, so I did.If my numbers aren’t the right ones, then have at it. Even if I am too high by 50 percent we would have one huge problem.Complicated SubjectThe above math shows it’s a complicated subject. Even Trump has admitted as much.Consider these comments from Trump in a .
“We have a lot of good people in this country, and we have to do something about it,” Mr. Trump said. “This has been going on for a long time. It’s a complicated subject.” He declined to specify whom he’d deport: “I don’t want to go too much into clarification, because the nicer I become, the more people that come over illegally.” Yet after stringent talk about deterrence, he ended with nuance: “There are some human questions that get in the way of being perfect, and we have to have the heart, too.”
[The WSJ concludes, and I agree] Mr. Trump can do much on immigration by executive action, but a durable solution needs legislation. Maybe Democrats, after the electoral haymaker they got last week, will be willing to compromise more than they have in the past. Mr. Trump missed a chance for a bipartisan deal in 2018 to permanently change the border incentives on asylum and more. He’ll have a narrow window again next year, if he’s willing and has the heart.
A Sensible PlanA sensible plan is to deport the criminals, shut the border, improve the legal process, give priority to parents and spouses of US citizens, give priority to those here the longest, and give priority to those working.How Ugly Will Trump’s Mass Deportation Get?Yesterday, I asked I am sad to report the unthinking consensus opinion is I don’t give a damn, just do it.Fortunately, Trump seems to be rethinking what’s needed according to the above Wall Street Journal interview.For more details of what Trump said and the current plan, please click on the above link.More By This Author:How Ugly Will Trump’s Mass Deportation Get?Trump Will Have A Second Chance To Put A Gold Advocate On The Fed, Go For It The Fed Cuts Key Interest Rate By A Quarter-Point, What’s Ahead For Bonds?
