Right now, the financial world is focused on the breathtaking stock market crash in China, but don’t forget to keep an eye on what is happening in Europe. Collectively, the European Union has a larger population than the United States, a larger economy than either the U.S. or China, and the banking system in Europe is the biggest on the planet by far. So what happens in Europe really matters, and at this point the European economy is absolutely primed for a meltdown. European debt levels have never been higher, European banks are absolutely loaded with non-performing loans and high-risk derivatives, and the unemployment rate in the eurozone is currently more than double the unemployment rate in the United States. In all the euphoria surrounding the “deal†that temporarily kept Greece in the eurozone, I think that people have forgotten that the economic and financial fundamentals in Europe have continued to deteriorate. Whether Greece ultimately leaves the eurozone or not, a great financial crisis is inevitably coming to Europe. It is just a matter of time.
In many ways, the economy of Europe is in significantly worse shape than the U.S. economy. Just recently, the IMF issued a report which warned that the eurozone is “susceptible to negative shocks†and could be facing very tough economic times in the near future. The following comes from the Guardian…
The International Monetary Fund has warned the eurozone faces a gloomy economic outlook thanks to lingering worries over Greece, high unemployment and a banking sector still battling to shake off the financial crisis.
The IMF’s latest healthcheck on the eurozone found it was“susceptible to negative shocksâ€Â as growth continues to falter and monetary policymakers run out of ways to help. It called for an urgent “collective push†from the currency union to speed up reforms or else risk years of lost growth.
“A moderate shock to confidence – whether from lower expected future growth or heightened geopolitical tensions –could tip the bloc into prolonged stagnation,†said Mahmood Pradhan, the IMF’s mission chief for the eurozone.