Testy Tuesday – Yesterday’s Volumes Made Monday Meaningless

Check out this chart from David Fry:

65M was the total volume for SPY for the day and, as you can see from the volume bars, almost all of that came early in the morning, followed by a dead afternoon in which we drifted higher on NO volume at all.  Nothing has changed, it’s the same manipulated BS we had at the beginning of the month – only now at much lower volumes. 

How can we change our minds about stocks when the data we’re looking at is statistically insignificant?  What is statistically significant is the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index – one of the most reliable indicators of GDP – and it’s pointing down yet again.  The CFNAI is a composite of 85 monthly indicators measuring all sorts of things like Manufacturing, Sales, Inventories, Prices, Shipping, etc. and, this month (March) 34 of them were negative.  Sure that means 51 were positive but the net was 0 and AGAIN, I ask you, is that the kind of data that we should be paying all-time high prices for stocks against? 

I’m not saying the economy sucks.  In fact, it’s fantastic for the top 10%.  I’m just saying that it’s NOT the kind of broad-based recovery that makes me want to place long-term bets at 20+ multiples of earning because, as we discovered in 2008, those earnings projection can quickly turn out to be nothing but BS and the very last people to see it coming are the CEOs and CFOs who make those projections.  

As earnings reports are coming in, we’re getting mixed signals.  85 of the S&P 500 have reported so far and 67% 85 of the S&P 500 have reported so far and 67% 85 of the S&P 500 have reported so far and 67% , which sounds nice but it’s below the 73% average and usually 58% beat on revenues (not that great, actually) but, so far, just 51% are over the line.  Half, that’s half.  That means half the companies reporting are FAILING to make earnings – even with lowered expectations (the weather, late Easter, Bitcoin, Ukraine, Flight 370 – pick an excuse).