The good news is:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at an all time high last Friday and the S&P 500 (SPX) closed at an all time high last Thursday.
The NegativesSeasonality for next week is negative. The PositivesThe first chart covers the last 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. OTC NH led prices upward last week. 
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data. NY NH continued rising confirming the index all time high.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good). OTC NL continued moving upward last week.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.NY NL also continued moving upward.
Summation indices are running totals of oscillator values.Short term momentum indicators applied to summation indices make them nearly binary.The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and momentum of summation indices of oscillators of advancing and declining issues, new highs and new lows and upside and downside volume on the NYSE. NY SI MoM’s all continued moving upward last week.
The next chart is similar to the NYSE chart above; except it shows the OTC, in blue and the SI MoM’s have been generated from NASDAQ breadth data. OTC SI MoM’s also continued moving upward. 
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).OTC HL Ratio moved deeper into positive territory, but turned downward on Friday.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.NY HL ratio hit its highest level in over 3 years (that is as far as I checked) on Thursday (the day the SPX closed at an all time high). 
SeasonalityNext week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 4th Friday of September during the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period. OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2023 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2023. There are summaries for both the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored. Average returns for the coming week have been negative by all measures, Report for the week before the 4th Friday of September.The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.Daily returns from Monday through the 4th Friday. OTC Presidential Year 4 (PY4) Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals 1964-4 0.28% 0.52% 0.33% 0.21% 0.56% 1.90% Avg 0.28% 0.52% 0.33% 0.21% 0.56% 1.90% 1968-4 0.03% 0.14% 0.00% -0.09% -0.08% 0.00% 1972-4 -0.05% -0.15% 0.07% -0.16% 0.13% -0.16% 1976-4 0.31% 0.58% 0.02% -0.18% 0.04% 0.76% 1980-4 0.31% -0.45% 0.07% -0.58% -1.69% -2.34% 1984-4 -0.74% -0.31% 0.09% 0.02% -0.14% -1.09% Avg -0.03% -0.04% 0.06% -0.20% -0.35% -0.57% 1988-4 -0.12% 0.17% 0.21% -0.01% 0.03% 0.28% 1992-4 -0.09% -0.95% -0.01% 0.51% -1.49% -2.03% 1996-4 -0.67% 0.31% 0.77% 0.27% 0.17% 0.86% 2000-4 -2.83% 3.73% 0.82% -1.76% -0.66% -0.69% 2004-4 -0.11% 0.69% -1.85% 0.04% -0.37% -1.60% Avg -0.77% 0.79% -0.01% -0.19% -0.46% -0.64% 2008-4 -4.17% -1.18% 0.11% 1.43% -0.15% -3.96% 2012-4 -0.60% -1.36% -0.77% 1.39% -0.65% -2.00% 2016-4 -0.18% 0.12% 1.03% 0.84% -0.63% 1.17% 2020-4 -0.13% 1.71% -3.02% 0.37% 2.26% 1.20% OTC summary for PY4 1964 – 2020 Avg -0.59% 0.24% -0.15% 0.15% -0.18% -0.51% Win% 27% 60% 71% 60% 40% 47% OTC summary for all years 1963 – 2023 Avg -0.27% -0.09% -0.02% -0.34% -0.14% -0.86% Win% 41% 51% 52% 39% 46% 42%
SPX PY4 Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals 1956-4 -0.39% -1.40% 0.15% -0.48% -0.55% -2.66% 1960-4 -2.27% 0.28% 1.04% -0.38% -0.85% -2.18% 1964-4 0.46% 0.04% 0.02% 0.11% 0.25% 0.87% 1968-4 0.57% 0.34% 0.00% -0.22% -0.05% 0.64% 1972-4 -0.18% -0.06% 0.05% -0.16% 0.08% -0.27% 1976-4 0.05% 1.42% -0.34% -0.50% -0.11% 0.51% 1980-4 0.89% -0.74% 0.73% -1.27% -1.84% -2.23% Avg 0.36% 0.20% 0.11% -0.41% -0.33% -0.10% 1984-4 -0.24% 0.21% 0.40% 0.41% -0.52% 0.26% 1988-4 -0.68% 0.34% 0.16% -0.36% 0.22% -0.33% 1992-4 -0.19% -1.18% 0.07% 0.25% -0.98% -2.04% 1996-4 -0.08% -0.13% 0.03% 0.01% 0.05% -0.12% 2000-4 -1.45% 1.07% -0.59% -0.16% -0.02% -1.15% Avg -0.53% 0.06% 0.02% 0.03% -0.25% -0.68% 2004-4 -0.56% 0.63% -1.39% -0.47% 0.16% -1.63% 2008-4 -3.82% -1.56% -0.20% 1.97% 0.32% -3.30% 2012-4 -0.22% -1.05% -0.57% 0.96% -0.45% -1.33% 2016-4 0.00% 0.03% 1.09% 0.65% -0.57% 1.20% 2020-4 -1.16% 1.05% -2.37% 0.30% 1.60% -0.58% Avg -1.15% -0.18% -0.69% 0.68% 0.21% -1.13% SPX summary for PY4 1956 – 2020 Avg -0.55% -0.04% -0.11% 0.04% -0.19% -0.84% Win% 24% 59% 63% 47% 41% 29% SPX summary for all years 1953 – 2023 Avg -0.41% -0.06% -0.09% -0.22% -0.14% -0.91% Win% 32% 44% 50% 40% 41% 35% ConclusionThe blue chip indices closed at all time highs on Thursday.Friday saw the highest level of downside volume for the year.Seasonality for the coming week has been negative.The strongest sectors last week were Precious Metals (for the 2nd week in a row) and Internet while the weakest were Electronics and Health Care.I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday September 27 than they were on Friday September 20. More By This Author:
