-Â Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Halt Four Straight Months of Negative Price Growth.
-Â Core Rate of Inflation to Hold Steady at Annualized 0.8% for Second Month.
Trading the News:Â Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Even though the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to hold flat in June, stickiness in the core rate of inflation may boost the appeal of the single-currency and fuel a larger rebound in EUR/USD as it curbs speculation for additional monetary support.
What’s Expected:
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Why Is This Event Important:
The European Central Bank (ECB) may continue to endorse a dovish outlook for monetary policy amid the disintegration in Europe, but President Mario Draghi and Co. may largely promote a wait-and-see approach at the next interest-rate decision on July 21 as the slew of non-standard measures work their way through the real economy.
Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario
|
Release |
Expected |
Actual |
|
M3 Money Supply (YoY) (MAY) |
4.8% |
4.9% |
|
Employment (QoQ) (1Q) |
— |
0.3% |
|
Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q F) |
1.5% |
1.7% |
The pickup in private-sector lending accompanied by signs of a stronger recovery may encourage stronger price growth in the monetary union, and a positive development may spur a bullish reaction in the Euro as market participants scale back bets for additional ECB support.
Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario
|
Release |
Expected |
Actual |
|
Business Climate Indicator (JUN) |
0.26 |
0.22 |
|
Retail Sales (MoM) (APR) |
0.4% |
0.0% |
|
Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR) |
-4.1% |
-4.4% |
