The Bundestag elections in Germany are over, with Angela Markel’s ruling party having won the most votes. Trading on currency markets this morning opened relatively peacefully.
Parliamentary elections were also held in New Zealand over the weekend. The ruling National Party received the most votes, although it wasn’t enough to win them a majority of seats in parliament and form a government. The NZD/USD pair has opened down this Monday, with a gap of around 1%.
Day’s news (GMT+3):
- 11:00 Germany: IFO business climate (Sep).
- 15:30 USA: Fed member Dudley’s speech.
- 16:00 Eurozone: ECB President Draghi’s speech.
- 19:40 USA: Fed member Evans’ speech.
Today, attention will be focused on the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee, which is scheduled to make a statement today at 12:30 (GMT+3). Any information concerning the BoE’s monetary policy has the potential to increase volatility on the pound.
EUR/USD
From chart analysis on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the EUR/USD pair is testing the line of the upwards trend for the second time since the Fed’s meeting:
This calls into serious doubt whether this upwards trend will continue. So, in my view, there’s currently no buy signal.
On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD keeps failing to renew the key top of the correctional movement and is consequently in the lower half of the price range:
Still, it’s relatively risky to buy EUR/USD in the lower part of this range considering that the price has been unable to reach the upper half for two weeks now. As it stands, I can’t see any clear buy or sell signals on this pair.
At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1934.
GBP/USD
On the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is once again testing the resistance line of the upwards trend:
Considering that the GBP/USD pair is trading at the upper part of the upwards trend, I’m going to refrain from buying.
