COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday and trends are turning down on the daily charts as continued stressful weather was seen in the south but export demand was less. USDA cut production and demand in its reports released on Friday and ending stocks were increased a little bit to 4.10 million bales. There are still ideas and reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China. However, Chinese demand could start to improve as the government there is injecting a lot of money into the economy in an effort to get the country moving again. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. The Delta has had somewhat better growing conditions but overall the entire crop has seen some stress.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down. Support is at 70.20, 69.30, and 67.50 December, with resistance of 71.80, 72.70 and 73.50 December.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday in a delayed response to the USDA reports released on Friday morning and as Hurricane Milton brought reports of more damage to orange trees and to infrastructure to the state and its industry. USDA cut Florida oranges production to 15 million boxes, from 18 million in its previous report and 20 million last year. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil has been hot and dry. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 477.00, 458.00, and 454.00 November, with resistance at a 497.00, 506.00, and 512.00 November
COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. There are now reports for some rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now set to begin after very dry conditions. Losses are still possible in Brazil and also Vietnam from previous bad weather. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 253.18 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 249.00, 242.00, and 236.00 December, and resistance is at 265.00, 268.00 and 271.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4800, 4750, and 4670 November, with resistance at 5100, 5280, and 5410 November.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday despite reports of better rains starting early last week and despite overall weakness in world petroleum prices based on reduced fears of the problems in the Mideast. A cold front has moved north from southern Brazil last week that has spread north and brought much needed rains to Sugar areas. Dry conditions seen generally in Brazil continued to support both markets overall. Harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial, and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 2180, 2100, and 2020 March and resistance is at 2270, 2340, and 2360 March. Trends in London are down. Support is at 564.00, 555.00, and 552.00 December, with resistance at 581.00, 586.00, and 590.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed, with nearby months a little lower and deferred months a little higher. The current rally attempt is not expected to go very far as the harvest has started in West Africa. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. Sources told wire services that the rains seen last week were beneficial for crop development. Surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 7560, 7230, and 7060 December, with resistance at 8040, 8240, and 8800 December. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 5490, 5350, and 5130 December, with resistance at 5800, 5900, and 6220 December.More By This Author:Grains Report – Monday, Oct. 14Softs Report – Thursday, Oct. 10Grains Report – Thursday, Oct. 9
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