COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday in range trading as continued stressful weather was seen in the south. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. However, Chinese demand could start to improve as the government there is injecting a lot of money into the economy in an effort to get the country moving again The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 71.50, 70.20, and 69.30 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.70 and 79.40 December.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower yesterday in range trading as a new tropical system is forming in the Atlantic but might not hit Florida. Growing conditions appear to be generally good for now. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil has been hot and dry. Ideas are that demand has suffered recently with the move to extremely high prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 438.00, and 432.00 November, with resistance at a 481.00, 487.00, and 506.00 November
COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday as rain appeared in the forecast for Brazil crop areas. More reports of dry weather that could be hurting production potential had been supporting futures in both markets, but there are now forecasts for some rains over the next few weeks in Brazil. A cold front is expected in southern Brazil on October 7th that could spread north. Relief was felt as the EU moved to delay implementation of its deforestation regulations for third world countries. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. It is still dry there.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 556.00, 248.00, and 242.00 December, and resistance is at 268.00, 278.00 and 284.00 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 5010, 4910, and 4750 November, with resistance at 5420, 5600, and 5660 November.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday but held the recent trading range as rains returned to the forecast in Brazil. A cold front is expected in southern Brazil on October 7th that could spread north. Dry conditions seen generally in Brazil continued to support both markets overall. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 2210, 2100, and 2020 March and resistance is at 2320, 2400, and 2460 March. Trends in London are down. Support is at 564.00, 552.00, and 541.00 December, with resistance at 586.00, 593.00, and 602.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed mostly lower yesterday and both markets are acting heavy as the harvest of the next crop is about to start. NY December closed a little higher. Relief was felt as the EU moved to delay implementation of its deforestation regulations for third world countries. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. Below average rains were reported last week, but sources told wire services that the rains were beneficial for crop development. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 6820, 6600, and 6350 December, with resistance at 7470, 7570, and 7710 December. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 4870, 4800, and 4740 December, with resistance at 5360, 5450, and 5730 December.More By This Author:Grains Report – Wednesday, Oct. 2Softs Report – Tuesday, Oct. 1Grains Report – Monday, Sept. 30
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