COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was slightly lower again on the stronger US Dollar. A stronger US Dollar has weighed on Cotton futures prices in recent days. Trends are mixed to down in this market. China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate and domestic consumption of goods and services has been the big problem there. Moves to boost consumer buying are hoped for soon. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved but still rather low US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down. Support is at 68.00, 67.50, and 66.60 December, with resistance of 70.00, 71.40 and 72.70 December.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday on speculative profit taking and reports of new selling from producers. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 465.00, 454.00, and 447.00 January, with resistance at a 485.00, 491.00, and 498.00 January.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher again yesterday as the US Dollar moved higher. Both markets closed at new highs for the move. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil and Vietnam on weather induced short crops continue. There is also a lozt of rain reported now in Vietnam to slow harvest activities there. The chart trends are turning up again in both markets. The harvest in Vietnam is active, but selling has been slow. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 263.18 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 259.00, 253.00, and 251.00 December, and resistance is at 262.00, 275.00 and 278.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 4470, 4340, and 4240 January, with resistance at 4670, 4770, and 4880 January.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday and both markets made new lows for the move. Unica released new center south Brazil production data on Tuesday, and it was 1.785 million tons, about 24.3% less than last year but stronger than trade expectations. The rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are turning down in both markets. Harvest progress is active in Brazil. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2090, 2020, and 1980 March and resistance is at 2210, 2260, and 2300 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 535.00, 530.00, and 523.00 December, with resistance at 550.00, 559.00, and 561.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher again yesterday and at new highs for the move again. Chart trends are up in both markets as a contra seasonal rally continues. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on the overall improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are no estimated at 455,000 tons, up 30% from last year. The Ivory Coast government has now reduced contract offers by about 40% on worries about less production due to too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 7870, 7520, and 7390 December, with resistance at 8780, 8840, and 8900 December. Trends in London are up. Support is at 6240, 6060, and 5940 December, with resistance at 6810, 6880, and 6940 December.More By This Author:
Softs Report – Thursday, Nov. 14
