The Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away.That’s the lesson for investors following the week-to-week action in the S&P 500 (Index: ), which fell by over 0.6% to close out the trading week ending on Friday, 13 December 2024 at .That retreat came after the preceding week’s near one-percent gain, which came as expectations there would be three rate cuts in 2025 took hold. But just one week later, the CME Group’s projects only two rate cuts in 2025, quarter point reductions that will be announced on 19 March (2025-Q1) and 18 September (2025-Q3). A third rate cut in 2025-Q2 now seems to no longer be in the forecast.Meanwhile, the CME Group’s is giving 96% probability the Fed reduce the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% later this week, on Wednesday, 18 December 2024. Investors will be paying close attention to statements being made by Fed officials, particularly if they give any suggestion as to the prospects of a rate cut in 2025-Q2.This future quarter matters because investors are closely focusing their forward-looking attention on it as they set current day stock prices. The of the alternative futures chart shows where things currently stand:What happens next depends on the random onset of new information, although in this upcoming week, the new information with the most potential to reshape the future expectations of investors is scheduled. Until then, here are the past week’s market moving headlines:Monday, 9 December 2024
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Oil rises over 1% on ouster of Syria’s Assad, Chinese monetary policy
- US average gasoline price drops below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021
- AMERICAS Fed cut gets baked in, China shifts monetary stance
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China vows to ramp up policy stimulus to spur growth in 2025
- China’s Nov bank lending seen doubling as stimulus kicks in
- China’s inflation weakens as new risks cloud horizon
- Japan’s bankruptcies set to hit 11-year high in 2024, data shows
- Japan revises Q3 GDP higher, keeps alive BOJ rate-hike expectations
- To Europe’s economic malaise, add a leadership void
- Wall Street closes down as tech stocks fall
Tuesday, 10 December 2024
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Oil prices rise on China stimulus, possible tight supply in Europe
- US net crude oil imports to fall by 20% in 2025 to lowest since 1971, EIA says
- US importers set to accelerate shipments to record levels on tariff, strike threats
- Brokerages still expect 25-bps US rate cut in December
- Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps on Dec. 18, pause in January: Reuters poll
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China’s exports slow sharply, imports shrink ahead of Trump tariffs
- VIEW China’s November export growth slows ahead of Trump tariffs
- China has full confidence in achieving this year’s growth target, says Xi
- The European Central Bank’s French Headache
- Wall St indexes fall with inflation data and rates in focus
Wednesday, 11 December 2024
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US inflation rose to 2.7% in November
- US consumer prices post largest rise in seven months; rents finally slowing
- VIEW In-line Nov US CPI rise leaves door open for Dec ease
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Oil up on demand hopes from China’s ‘looser’ monetary policy
- OPEC makes fifth and biggest cut to 2024 oil demand growth forecast
- BofA CEO says business outlook is brighter under Trump, expects surge in banking, trading revenue
- BNY CEO optimistic on US economic growth, AI potential
- China ready to go deeper into debt to counter Trump’s tariffs
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Exclusive: Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom
- China’s yuan plans and a look at inflation
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Japan’s wholesale inflation accelerates, keeps BOJ rate-hike plan in focus
- Explainer: How likely is a Bank of Japan rate hike next week?
- Japan manufacturers’ mood turns negative for the first time in 10 months – Reuters poll
- Bank of England set to stay in central bank slow lane and keep rates on hold
- Bank of Canada likely to reduce interest rate by 50bps
- Brazil’s central bank hikes more than expected, signals more tightening ahead
- ECB’s rearview mirror ignores economic crash ahead
- Stunning rally in Big Tech drives Nasdaq to 20,000
Thursday, 12 December 2024
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U.S. Producer Prices Rise 0.4% in November, Well Above Expectations
- Eggs boost US producer prices in November, but services inflation slowing
- US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falls to 6.60%
- Oil little changed as IEA surplus forecast offsets rate cut optimism
- China pledges more debt, rate cuts as Trump tariff threats loom
- Japan Nov inflation likely accelerated, exports up on weak yen: Reuters Poll
- Exclusive: BOJ leaning toward keeping rates steady next week, sources say
- BOJ to skip rate hike in December, majority of economists say
- SNB cuts interest rate 50 basis points, biggest reduction in nearly a decade
- ECB cuts rates again and keeps door open to further cuts
- ECB cuts interest rates for fourth time this year
- Lagarde comments at ECB press conference
- Handful of ECB policymakers wanted larger cut, worried about tariffs – sources
Friday, 13 December 2024
- Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran
- US data has Fed striding toward rate cut next week, and tip-toeing into 2025
- China bank lending rises far less than expected, more policy steps needed
- BOJ’s rate hike plans clouded by small firms’ wage woes
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ECB governors back more rate cuts if inflation settles at goal
- ECB’s Centeno sees further gradual rate easing in coming quarters
- German exports fall more than expected in October
- Euro zone industry did not fall in Oct but recovery not in sight
- Broadcom hits trillion-dollar valuation on lofty forecasts for AI demand
- Negative market breadth, hot inflation data snaps S&P 500’s three-week win streak
- Only a third of the S&P 500 is outperforming the index
The ’s estimate of the real GDP growth rate for the current quarter of 2024-Q4 had no updates in the past week and was unchanged at +3.3%.On an upcoming programming note, the last edition of the this year will be on Monday, 23 December 2024.More By This Author:
