Revisions Won’t Change The Game. The Corn & Ethanol Report

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We kicked off the day with PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PPI Ex Food Energy, and Trade MoM & YoY, and Export Sales at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 1:00 P.M.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index in November declined by a monthly decline by a slight 0.05% from October, marking the first monthly decline since December 2023. On a annualized basis, the inflation rose to a 4-month high of 2.7%. While the rate of inflation is now well below the 2022 highs. The Consumer Price Index has set new all-time highs for 10 consecutive months in 2024 and is now 21% higher than January 2021. Unfortunately, for the American worker, wage inflation has not kept pace with consumer inflation. The Employment Cost Index which for Q3 was up just 17% from Q1 2021. The cost of living outstripped wage growth.CBOT Corn Rally Pauses; Bullish Dec WASDE Digested; Fund Length at 22-Month High:Global corn markets ended mixed, with March CBOT unable to trade through final resistance at $4.50. Note also global FOB premiums weaken slightly, with US, Argentine, and Ukrainian origin all quoted near parity. US Gulf corn is no longer ultra-cheap in the global marketplace, and while strong nearby disappearance underpins breaks through the remainder of December, it’s the change in disappearance rates that keep ARC’s strategy of rewarding rallies in place. US ethanol production in the week ending Dec 6^th totaled 317 Mil Gal, unchanged from early Dec 2023. ARC calculates managed funds net long position on Wednesday afternoon at 135,000 contracts, the largest since Feb 2023. The best-performing weather models feature regional but important rainfall in Cordoba. Argentina. Furthermore, ARC struggles to justify $4.49+, spot, and $4.50 Dec 25, without South American yield loss. Rallies into USDA’s January stocks/final production report will be rewarded. CBOT contracts are nearing overbought territory.More By This Author: