Retail Sales OK In December 2013

Retail sales were up according to US Census. Our analysis agreed, and it is positive that the 3 month rolling average did marginally improve.

 

Econintersect Analysis:

• unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 0.6% month-over-month, and up 4.3% year-over-year.
• unadjusted sales 3 month moving year-over-year average marginally accelerated from 4.1% to 4.2%.
• unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 3.6% year-over-year
• backward revisions were down moderately;
• food, clothing and gas stations were the largest contributor to the gain this month, whilst car sales and almost everything else retail were soft this month.

U.S. Census Headlines:

• seasonally adjusted sales up 0.2% month-over-month, up 4.1% year-over-year
• the market was expecting between -0.1% to +0.9% month-over-month seasonally adjusted sales increase (versus the 0.2% reported)

Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted Retail Sales (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales (red line)

Inflation adjusted retail sales now appears to have an upward trend channel for most of 2013. This month, the data is at the higher end of the range. Retail sales per capita seems to be in a tight range since 2012 – and is consistent with 21st century expansion.

Year-over-Year Change – Per Capita Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales

From the U.S. Census Bureau press release:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $431.9 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.7%) above December 2012. Total sales for the 12 months of 2013 were up 4.2 percent (±1.7%) from 2012. Total sales for the October through December 2013 period were up 1.0 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The October to November 2013 percent change was revised from +0.7 percent (±0.5%) to +0.4 percent (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent (±0.5%)* from November 2013, and 4.0 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 9.9 percent (±2.1%) from December of 2012 and auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up 6.2 percent (±2.1%) from last year.