Non-Farm Payrolls rose by only 36,000. Yet again, another disappointment. On the other hand, the unemployment rate fell to 9%, a level unseen in a long time. Also “Real Unemployment Rate†made a big drop. After initial choppiness, the dollar rises, with EUR/USD falling to support.
Real Unemployment Rate makes a significant fall: A figure which represents the bigger picture, including the discouraged people that are too desperate to look for a job, fell from 16.7% to 16.1%. It was at 17% during November and December. This is important.
Last month’s figures were revised to the upside, as expected – 121K instead of 103K. Also November’s numbers enjoyed an upwards revision. These upwards revision are too common for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.4%, double the early expectations.
Updated 15:00 GMT: After an initial rise, EUR/USD is falling below 1.3610, and now below 1.3576 to 1.3550. Next support is at 1.3440. This second breakout needs to be confirmed.
The hours before the release saw EUR/USD in a very tight range, between 1.3610 to 1.3640. It was hit yesterday by Trichet, that didn’t raise his tone about inflation, and left many disappointed.
The Pound is also falling to 1.6070, still far from the 1.60 support line. GBP/USD did move before the release and lost the 1.6110 line, losing the hot air that filled it beforehand.
AUD/USD also lost some ground and traded just under 1.0180 before the publication. USD/CAD fell on great Canadian job figures – Canada saw a gain of almost 70,000 jobs. This was released 90 minutes before the NFP.
Here is the definition of U-6.
Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
Apart from the official unemployment rate (U-3), and the “real unemployment rate†(U-6), there are more definitions and data. You can see it here. Note the seasonally adjusted numbers.
Further reading: Dollar index Elliot Wave Analysis
