According to some reports, security has been ramped up around Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, signaling he may become more important than the battered leader of the opposition. Yet this anecdote is not totally out of sync with reality.
After exit polls showed a hung parliament, the initial real results are looking good for the left-wing opposition. Labour are either in step or outperforming expectations.
UKIP, the Brexit party, is totally collapsing. This is no surprise, but they were expected to send their voters to the Conservatives. In some places, the Conservative Party is taking most of the UKIP votes, but not all, some are going to Labour. And in other places, there is just a clear shift towards Corbyn’s party.
Here is one example:
#GE2017: Newcastle upon Tyne East:
Lab: 67.6% (+18.1)
Con: 21.3% (+3.7)
LDem: 6.2% (-4.9)
UKIP: 3.2% (-9.4)
Grn: 1.8% (-6.9)— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 8, 2017
The Labour outperformance is also evident when the Conservative Party is returned to a safe seat. LAB gains more votes:
#GE2017: Kettering:
Con: 57.9% (+6.1)
Lab: 36.5% (+11.4)
LDem: 3.3% (+0.1)
Grn: 2.3% (-1.2)
Con hold.— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 8, 2017
We knew that momentum (Also the name of Corbyn’s movement within the Labour party) was with the opposition. It seems that terror attacks did not push voters to the right.
Can Labour reach an absolute majority? It doesn’t seem so, but leading a minority government or build a coalition. To be on the safer side, it is harder to see an absolute majority for Theresa May. Perhaps Boris Johnson will replace her after all.
How will the pound react? A government leaning towards a softer Brexit would be positive for the pound. It all depends on the pro-Remain LibDems if they are kingmakers.
For now, the initial sharp fall in the pound provided a buying opportunity, as we timely noted.
