Charles Gaba, who has become the “Nate Silver†for Obamacare enrollment numbers; now predicts that by April 15, 17 million Americans will have purchased their own healthcare coverage.
His back-of-the-envelope estimate includes “a nice round 8 millionâ€Â who buy policies in the government marketplaces. In parentheses, he suggests: Perhaps a little higher (1M even?) and then strikes that thought; “As always,†he notes, “I’ll be more than happy to be proven wrong, as long as I’ve undershot the mark.â€
Gaba then adds roughly  9 million who, (according to a Rand Corp. survey), have bought their own policies 9 million who, (according to a Rand Corp. survey), have bought their own policies. Nine million plus 8 million brings us to an astounding number: 17 million.
Rand shared its analysis with the LA. Times, though it has not yet released its report. Obamcare’s skeptics scoff at Rand’s number; but, Gaba points out the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association alone have confirmed its member plans have enrolled at least 1.7 million people in plans that meet the ACA’s requirements outside the exchange system.
Gaba acknowledges “Rand didn’t come out and say that the 9M figure was absolute; they just based it on a survey with percentages. Surveys include margins of error, so it could be only 8M, or perhaps 10M, or maybe a bit higher or lower.â€
Gaba has gained his reputation by being meticulous—and cautious. Typically, his estimates have been conservative. Given that track record, my guess is that by April 15, we will find that at least 17 million Americans have bought their own policies.
At this point, you may be wondering: But don’t we need the roughly 9 million Americans who are purchasing policies directly from insurers to join the state marketplaces in order to spread the cost of Exchange coverage among as many people as possible?
