The New Zealand dollar tried to recover amid less noise. PPI and the milk auction stand out. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
New Zealand retail sales missed expectations with a modest rise of only 0.8% and a miss also on the core. The US dollar struggled to make gains despite stronger than expected retail sales and inflation figures as well as an upbeat sounding Yellen.
Updates:
NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- PPI: Sunday, 21:45. New Zealand releases its Producer Price Index only once per month, making every publication quite important. In Q3, the headline PPI Input advanced by 1.5% q/q, a relatively rapid pace. A move up of 0.9% is on the cards now. PPI Output increased by 1% and is now predicted to increase by 0.6%.
- GDT Price Index: Tuesday, during the European afternoon. Milk, New Zealand’s leading export, and the accompanying dairy products are key to the kiwi economy, and the bi-weekly auction moves the currency. In the previous release, prices advanced by 1.3%.
- Credit Card Spending: Wednesday, 2:00. With retail sales numbers made public only once per quarter, the information about plastic card usage fills the void. A year over year rise of 8.5% was noted in December. We now get the first report for 2017.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/dollar hovered around levels that were seen last week.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
The round number of 0.74 served as resistance and support back in 2015. 0.7310 was the high point in January 2017.
0.7265 was a swing high in October 2016 and works as resistance. 0.7230 served as support in September 2016.
0.7160 is a pivotal line within the range. 0.7140 worked in both directions in the past months.
0.71, a round number, was a double bottom in October. 0.7075 was a swing low in August and had a role afterward as well. It is followed by 0.7035, the low seen in October 2016.
