Image Source: Here’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of today:Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median (inverted light green triangle), GDPNow as of 9/18 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 9/20 (red triangle), FT-Booth as of 9/14 (blue square), and August median SPF (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating growth rate on levels of GDP, except for Survey of Professional Forecasters. Source: BEA 2024Q2 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.One can see how the nowcasts have evolved by looking at the implied trajectories with intervening weeks.Figure 2: GDP (bold black), GDPNow as of 9/18 (light blue square), as of 9/6 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast as of 9/20 (dark red line), as of 9/13 (light red line), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels calculated by iterating growth rate on levels of GDP. Source: BEA 2024Q2 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and author’s calculations.More By This Author:State Employment Report For August Is Manufacturing In Recession?Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?
Nowcasts Rising
