Image Source: My guess for private NFP:Figure 1: Private NFP (bold black), nowcast (blue), +/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.The nowcast is +176K, vs +125K Bloomberg consensus.The nowcast is based on this regression:For comparison, GS provides some big data nowcasts for total NFP (GS adds 20K to ADP to scale up to total NFP).Goldman Sachs estimate of total NFP is at +165K. One can take 20K off to get implied private NFP (Bloomberg consensus has 23K difference).More By This Author:Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment Measures ComparedBusiness Cycle Indicators – August Monthly GDPManufacturing In Recession? (Revisited)
Nowcasting Private NFP Using ADP Data
