A slight disappointment in the US NFP, but it doesn’t seem to bother the dollar. The US gained 215K jobs. The unemployment rate is at 5.3% as expected and wages are +0.2% m/m as expected.
USD is stronger, less so against the yen. Update: we are seeing a second round of dollar buying.
The US was expected to report a gain of around 225K jobs in July. The unemployment rate was predicted to remain unchanged at 5.3% and average hourly earnings carried expectations for a rise of 0.2% of m/m.
Currencies remained tense towards the publication. — lots more coming —
Data (updated)
- Non-Farm Payrolls: Â 215KÂ (exp. +225K, previously 223KÂ before revisions)
- Participation Rate: 62.6%Â (62.6% last month )
- Unemployment Rate: 5.3% (exp.5.3%, last month 5.3% before revisions)
- Revisions: +14K. (-60K last month)
- Average Hourly Earnings: +9.2% m/m, +2.1% y/y (exp. +0.2% m/m, last month 0% m/m, 2.0% y/y)
- Private Sector: 210KÂ (ADP showed only +185K).
- Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 10.4%Â (previous: 10.5%).
- Employment to population ratio: 59.3%Â (previous: 59.3%)
- Average workweek: 34.6 (last month: 34.5).
Analysis and currency reaction (updated)
Update: The dollar is slightly lower across the board, but nothing of note.
- EUR/USD traded around 1.0930, basically maintaining its range.
- GBP/USD was at 1.5520, still suffering the BOE blow.
- USD/JPY traded around 124.70, shy of 125.
- USD/CAD was around 1.31, off the highs and awaiting its own employment report.
- AUD/USD traded around 0.7380. The Aussie struggled to rise despite positive Australian news..
- NZD/USDÂ was around 0.6565
Background
Data leading up to the publication was leaning to the upside. The very strong ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, the good ISM manufacturing PMI and solid jobless claims beat the poor ADP.
In the last decision, the Fed left the door open for a rate hike in September but made it clear that it all depends on the data. Some members said that if we get OK NFPs now and in September, a hike is baked in, but not all share the same opinion.
