OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.62%) this morning are up +0.51% and European stocks are up +0.84% at a 6-week high as China’s economy grew more than estimated last quarter and on expectations that the ECB will boost stimulus at Thursday’s policy meeting. Another positive for European stocks was an increase in German investor confidence to the highest in 11 months. Stocks gains were muted, however, after the IMF cut its 2015 global GDP forecast. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +2.07%, Hong Kong +0.90%, China +1.22%, Taiwan +0.85%, Australia -0.03%, Singapore +0.80%, South Korea +1.00%, India +1.85%. Asian stocks received a boost after China reported Q4 GDP of 7.3% y/y, better than expectations of 7.2% y/y. Commodity prices are mixed. Feb crude oil (CLG15 -2.40%) is down -2.16%. Feb gasoline (RBG15 -1.08%) is down -1.15%. Feb gold (GCG15 +0.87%) is up +0.74% at a 4-1/2 month high after the action by the IMF to cut its 2015 global GDP estimate bolstered speculation that word central banks will continue their overly easy monetary policies. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.75%) is down -0.84%. Agriculture prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00+0.25%) is up +0.27%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.20%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.98%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.12%) are down -3ticks.
German Jan ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +13.5 to 48.4, better than expectations of +5.1 to 40.0 and the highest in 11 months. Jan ZEW survey current situation rose +12.4 to 22.4, better than expectations of +3.0 to 13.0.
The IMF cut its 2015 global GDP forecast to 3.5%, down from a 3.8% pace projected in Oct, saying “the world economy is facing strong and complex cross currents.” The IMF cut its 2015 China GDP estimate to 6.8% from 7.1% in Oct and lowered its Eurozone GDP forecast to 1.2% from 1.3% projected in Oct. Conversely, the IMF raised its 2015 U.S. GDP forecast to 3.6% from an Oct estimate of 3.1%.
