More Anemic Economic Data Ahead Of GDP & Jobs Data. The Corn & Ethanol Report

We kicked off the day with Advanced Durable Goods Orders MoM, Export Sales, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM, GDP Price Index QoQ Final, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ Fibal, Corporate Profits QoQ Final, Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM, GDP Sales QoQ Final, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air, PCE Prices QoQ Final,and Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final at 7:30 A.M., Fed Collins & Fed Kugler Speech at 8:10 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Speech at 8:20 A.M., Fed Williams Speech 8:25 A.M., Existing Home Sales MoM & YoY at 9:00 A.M., Fed Barr Speech and EIA Natural Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 A.M., Treasury Secretary Yellen Speech at 10:15 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., Fed Kashkari Speech and 7-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Cold Storage and Hogs & Pigs at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.August existing home sales reported last week by the National Association of Realtors were down 3%for the month and were 4% less than a year ago at 3.86 million homes. This marked the 37^th consecutive month of year-over-year declines, was the lowest monthly sales rate since October 2023, and the 2^nd lowest since October 2010. August new home sales reported by the Census Bureau yesterday morning was down 5% from July but were 10% more than a year ago. However, combined sales were still down 3% for the month an 2% less than last year. The total sales volume of 4.576 Mil homes was the lowest since December and was barely above the 12-year low. Mortgage Rates have fallen to a year low, which has simulated mortgage demand, but inventory remains historically tight, which will likely lead to even higher home prices in the coming months.Image Source: 
Central US Weather DiscussionHelene A 500-Mile- Wide Hurricane To Soak Southeast; Plains/Midwest Completely Dry Next 10 Days:The central US forecast remains consistent with Hurricane Helenes’s path only modestly fine-tuned. Lite/moderate rains are possible in IL, IN, and OH Sun-Mon, but elsewhere prolonged dryness and normal/above normal temps will be featured. Midwest harvest progress moves smoothly into Oct 10^th . Frost/freeze remains absent from the Dakota’s, MN, and WI. Ag Resources (ARC) does note that harvesting will be impacted across the Southeast. The Hi-Res NAM model forecast that cumulative rainfall of 2.5-10.0” will impact AL, GA, SC, and TN in the next 60 days. Some 80 Mil Bu of soybeans remain unharvested in those states. This reflects a small portion of the national crop, but will be an expanding demand pull from the Southeast/ East Coast in 24/25. Recall corn and soybean yields in the Carolina’s & Virginia are already down sharply from last year due to drought. Abnormal dryness will also be expanding into mid-October across the US HRW Belt.
No Evidence of South American Weather Pattern Change; Northern Brazil Historically Dry:The South American forecast is consistent in keeping meaningful rainfall confined to Mato Grosso & Rio Grande do Sul in far southern Brazil. Elsewhere warmth/dryness has been extended into Oct 9^th, and the lack of rain/soil moisture in Mato Grosso & Goias is becoming historic nature. Close attention must be paid to second half of Oct forecasts, but without a pattern shift in the next 2-3 weeks. Brazilian soybean and safrinha corn seeding dates will be behind schedule. Assuming two-week forecasts verify, cumulative Sep 1-Oct 9 rainfall in Mato Grosso will total just .76’. Sep 1Oct 15 rainfall last year totaled 3.6”. The 20-year average is 3.1”. 2017/18 & 2020/21 were both years of delayed soybean & safrinha corn planting. For soybeans, the risk is a later arrival of Brazilian soybeans into the world market – Mato Grosso’s soybean crop in 2020/21 was only 30% harvested by mid-Feb. For corn, the risk is one of potentially large yield loss. Regular rain is needed across some 65% of Brazil’s soybean belt!
World Corn Market Ends Mixed; Ukrainian FOB Market Rallies; Rain Is Needed in N Brazil:Dec CBOT corn posted a new rally – high settlement on Wednesday. Modest premium is being added as time is running short to guarantee safrinha corn planting in Northern Brazil next February, and the evolution of Brazil’s climate pattern is mid/late October is critical. Equally important, (The Corn & Ethanol Report more than mentioned numerous times)is that the Ukrainian fob market continues to strengthen. Ukraine’s cash market continues to reflect this year’s crop shortfall which is being compounded by toxin levels – and Ukraine is priced above US Gulf origin on a fob basis for the first time since August. Seasonal trends have shown that steep premiums are rare. ARC maintains that the US  expands its share of world trade. Note also the Buenos Aires Exchange estimates Argentina production in 2025 at 47 MMT’s, vs. USDA’s 51. CBOT corn futures have an initial upside target at $4.20-$4.25. Corn is a longer term bullish trend on growing US demand. The USDA announced the sale of 180,000 MT’s (7 Mil Bu) of corn to Mexico. US ethanol production slumped 994 TBD from the previous week and down 1.5% from a year ago. Production was the lowest in 20-weeks. There was 100 Mil Bu of corn used, or 14.3 Mil Bu per day, below the 14.9 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.450 Bil. Implied gas demand jumped 5% to 9.205 MBD and was up 7% year-over-year.More By This Author:Consumer Confidence & Richmond Manufacturing Fall Off A Cliff. The Corn & Ethanol ReportFunds Squaring Positions During Harvest. The Corn And Ethanol ReportPort Strike Will Rise Food & Energy Prices Exponentially – The Corn & Ethanol Report