I’m concerned and nervous about this market, but I don’t have many charts to support my sense of caution.
The major indexes showed some strength today, but the bullish percents indicated that there was selling pressure in the general market.
It looked like this index was going to break down in June, but it bounced back. The trendline continues to hold, but the momentum is turning lower. I’m convinced that the general market will follow this index either up or down.
Is the dollar about to suffer a severe breakdown, or does this level provide support for a reversal? I honestly don’t know and don’t have any guesses. But I am nervous about a breakdown.
So far the Transports index is holding above its 200-day. It isn’t good to see one index surging higher while the other breaks down. I don’t like this.
The Leader List
Money is pouring into all the foreign ETFs, but they seem extended to me.
Strong: Dow Industrials, Financials, Bonds, Home Construction, Foreign ETFs. Weak: Dow Transports, Biotech. Dropped from the list: Materials.
Another good looking chart gets dropped from the leader list based on a bit of relative weakness.
I am not a buyer at the moment because the short-term trend is down. But, if I were a buyer, I would be looking at this chart of the Financials.
Outlook
John Murphy has pointed out that it has been a year since the market has experienced a 5% correction so it is overdue for a pullback. He also mentioned that we are entering the risky time of the year for market corrections.
The long-term outlook is positive.
The medium-term trend is up. Watching for signs of a peak.
The short-term trend is down as of July-28.
