Opening Market Commentary For 07-02-2014
Premarkets were up +0.12% prior to the good ADP Employment Change being higher than anticipated and dropped to +0.05%. Markets opened mixed with the large caps flat and in the red and then melting up into the green on anemic volume.
By 10 am the US Factory Orders came in at -0.5% lower than the -0.3% and the averages continued to languish on anemic volume, but remained in the green fractionally. Be alert for volatility in either direction.
Looks like any excitement is possibly being put off until tomorrow’s financial payroll reports.
Despite strong ADP survey, investors hold back ahead of US payrolls figures
LONDON (AP) – Markets were fairly leaden-footed Wednesday after a strong U.S. private payrolls report, a day ahead of the early publication of official government data. ADP, a payroll processor, said U.S. businesses added 281,000 jobs last month.
That was up on the 179,000 recorded in the previous month and the 200,000 median forecast in the markets. The ADP survey suggests that Thursday’s official government figures could also show a significant gain from May’s tally of 217,000 jobs.
The government’s nonfarm payrolls figures are being released a day earlier than usual because of U.S. Independence Day.
However, analysts were cautious as the ADP figures don’t always tally with the government data. “This means upside risk to tomorrow’s payroll report but please remember how the ADP is known for throwing the market off ahead of the official jobs report,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 15.33. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile period.
