Opening Market Commentary For 09-08-2014
Premarkets were down -0.10% with some unusual action. The markets opened down, quickly climbing to flat status on moderate volume (low by historical standards) and then turned around.
By 10:30 the large caps were solidly in the red and the small caps were green and healthy which lead me to believe the SP500 will improve by the close, or so the bulls hope.
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The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 13.19. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 69 % Bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.
Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 61.4 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here )
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 65.82. (Chart Here) Very close to resistance now and rising.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 76.00. (Chart Here) Remains below support, now resistance. Bearish flatting.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 24.28. (Chart Here).
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +6.92. ($NYMO) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal and apparently it has started.
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StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 69.12. (Chart Here)
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and that is another notch in the gun signaling that we might have another reversal very soon – at least to cover the gap below at 67.85.
