Opening Market Commentary For 06-30-2014
Premarkets ranged from being down -0.07% to flat and opened the same way.
By 10 am the markets were sea-sawing sideways with the small caps in the green and the large caps in the red slightly trending up all on anemic volume. The US Chicago Purchasing Manager came in lower and US Pending Home Sales for May came in much higher than expected which sent the Large Caps up to Friday’s closing numbers. Then the low volume sideways march continued as investors continued their worry stance. Where are the BTFD bulls now?
Oils ore sliding up, the US dollar is melting down as the Chicago PMI Drops, Misses By Most Since March which didn’t move the markets but the US Pending Home Sales did. The Pending Home Sales Jump In May; Drop YoY For 8th Month In A Rowas they came in at -6.9% better than the -9.0% expected.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 14.34. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile period.
Barchart.com shows a 72 % buy. Investing.com members’ sentiments are 59 %bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 68.7 % bullish with the status atBear Correction.
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 73.80.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 83.00.
(Click on $BPNYA or $BPSPX to see chart)
Bottom line here is that I have not seen any serious bears jumping out of the woods just yet, although I am VERY concerned that ANY minor correction could turn nasty in a heart beat. One significant signal would be daily losses in any of the major averages that go over the ‘magic’ 3 % and then you need to pay close attention to risk-off tactics. There hasn’t been a 10% correction in several years and some investors are becoming increasingly concerned an imminent correction is on the way.
