Opening Market Commentary For 04-01-2014
Premarkets have crashed and futures are down 5% O.K., April Fools.
Premarkets were actually up again this morning by +0.20% and Asia is not looking very good, especially China with its second bond default.
Markets opened up, should say, gaped up leaving room to fall and cover later. The DOW and the SP500 opened up at +0.40% with on low volume which is not comforting. I would expect more investor participation on such a bullish move if it were real. By 10 am the SP500 was on its way to a new historical high at 1884.60 beating the old mark by $0.63. What does this mean?
I am going to call this a failed test for now. If the Sp500 closes above it old closing high of 1877.04 then that will be bullish. Below that and we have a double top scenario which in the past has been a bearish indicator – stay tuned this session is far from over.
The US ISM Manufacturing report this morning was 53.7 while expecting 54.0 up from the last report of 53.2. The oils immediately declined while gold, copper and the US dollar remained relatively stable.
US PMI Drops, Misses By Most In 7 Months, Weather Implicated Again
The 2nd class data point, that quickly became the darling of the algo pumpers when it beat expectations by a record last month, has tumbled back to a less exuberant reality and missed expectations by the most in 7 months.
Printing at 55.5 (vs 56.0 exp.) the index is still in expansion mode butfactory jobs and factory orders sub-indices both fell...
The first column is what was reported this morning. The second column is what the consensus expected and the third is the last reporting.
S&P Hits New All Time High On ISM Miss, Employment Index Dropping To 9 Month Lows
Following the big plunge in January, the world’s extrapolators have been exuberant over the snap-back from weather-driven anomalies… today, ISM dashed those hopes to some extent as the pace of the v-shaped recovery slowed notably and ISM missed expectations for the 3rd of the last 4 months.
While new orders rose, employment fell to its lowest in 9 months. Of course this bad news is just what the doctor ordered and those oh-so-not-front-running algos just lifted stocks to a new all-time record high… imagine if it had missed by even more!!
