Except for a brief pause this morning, the averages have continued to melt downward and are all in the red. The volume at noon-time is dipping into the anemic levels and the $VIX remains in the low 13’s.

By noon the averages had slipped considerably from the morning highs closing the opening gaps and looking for further losses. The bear is in the room and is looking like he isn’t going to take any prisoners.

 

The short term indicators are leaning now towards the hold side at the midday, but I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period.

The longer 6 month outlook still remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the effects are in this almost nothing start of the Fed’s ‘Taper’. By March investors should know how the taper is going to work out in relationship to the stability of the US financial markets and their ability to not to slide downward. For now, I am continuing to expect weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future.

Here is the quandary some investors have now. They have bet on the QE program to bolster their profits and knowing full well they may see some eroding of profits over the next few months, so what should they do? Start reducing positions now, my choice, or let profits ride a bit longer? I would be afraid that if a serious ‘Black Swan’ popped up, the market decent would wipe out a lot of profits. This ‘house of cards’ the Fed has built is fragile and would not take a lot to tear it down.

I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does over the next 4 months. Removing 10 billion from the bond buying program each month isn’t going to do much in reducing the QE program in the beginning, but halving it in 4 months certainly will – IF – the Fed’s continues the taper program.

My instincts tell me that the Keynesian’s are going to be reluctant to stop their grand financial experiment and will want to taper the taper within the next several months – especially if the employment rate increases.