The FuseEquity futures are getting pounded on this first day of trading in 2024. The new year offers some promise but after such a strong year in 2023 we have to expect to see some giveback and remember – nobody rings a bell at the top.
Interest Rates are rising sharply this am as investors on the long end of the curve start to contemplate just how many rate cuts are likely in 2024. It appears the market is looking for more than the Fed is willing to offer this year, but things can change quickly. Regardless, stocks are due for a pullback and the technical condition is ripe for it.Over the long weekend oil prices went up and continue to fly higher, crude up over 73 per barrel, news that Iran dispatched a ship into the Red Sea. Stocks often give back gains following a long weekend, that seems to be the case today.Not much on the earnings calendar this week but we’ll hear from Lamb Weston, RPM and Greenbrier. Next week starts the bigger earnings with financials and banks among others.Stocks just could not make it out of the gate on Friday and finished poorly but on pretty heavy volume thanks to a big options expiration day. For the month the SPX 500 finished higher once again up by 4.2% while the small cap Russell 2K finished the best, up 11% in December. That was some outstanding performance from an index needing to play severe catchup. For the year, Nasdaq was by far the best with a 53% gain, wiping out losses from 2022.Breadth was poor all day as buyers just could not step up to add stocks. That’s fine, the indicator was pretty close to overbought and now that condition has been burned off. We’ll be looking for better breadth in the coming days as money flows start trickling into markets following the holiday.
If strong breadth does not return it means January is going to be a very tough month.Volume was spiked on Friday following a big options expiration day. We should note many of these monthly and quarterly options have been open awhile and with some big open interest, so most were closing trades. When the A traders come back to work, we may see volume start to rise again, it’s been rather sublime for the past couple weeks.The markets are floating here which is rather dangerous for the uptrend to continue. If stocks are not going up, they will wind up going down. On the weekly SPX 500 chart we’ll move support down to connect the lows from 2023, and that level is currently 4,250 or so. Plenty of room to correct from current levels and still have the uptrend in fact. The Internals
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Market Blast – January 2
