The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) improved in March. Econintersect‘s analysis using the unadjusted data concurs – but adds that this whole data series was revised on 28 March 2014 generally upward.
In the chart below, the yellow line shows the new unadjusted data values whilst the red line shows the old values.
Unadjusted Industrial Production – Series Revision – Old Values (red line) and New Values (yellow line)
The analysis below is based on changes to the new index values which were published weeks before this data release.
- Headline seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.7% month-over-month and up 3.8% year-over-year.
- Econintersect‘s analysis using the unadjusted data is that IP growth accelerated 0.4% month-over-month, and is up 4.2% year-over-year.
- The year-over-year rate of growth has accelerated 0.3% from last month using a three month rolling average.Â
- The market was expecting 0.0% to 0.9% month-over-month (consensus 0.4%) versus the headline increase of 0.7%.
- The seasonally adjusted manufacturing sub-index (which is more representative of economic activity) was up 0.5% month-over-month – and up 2.8% year-over-year .
IP headline index has three parts – manufacturing, mining and utilities – manufacturing was up 0.5% this month (up 2.8% year-over-year), mining up 1.5% (up 7.9% year-over-year), and utilities were up 1.0% (up 4.4% year-over-year). Note that utilities are 9.8% of the industrial production index.
Comparing Seasonally Adjusted Year-over-Year Change of the Industrial Production Index (blue line) with Components Manufacturing (red line), Utilities (green line), and Mining (orange line)
Unadjusted Industrial Production year-over-year growth for the past 12 months has been between 2% and 4% – it is currently 4.1%. It is interesting that the unadjusted data is giving a smooth trend line.
