The headline existing home sales growth “slowed” with the authors saying “There continues to be a mismatch since the spring between the growing level of homebuyer demand in most of the country in relation to the actual pace of home sales, which are declining“. Our analysis shows home sales are in contraction year-over-year.
Analyst Opinion of Existing Home Sales
The rolling averages have been slowing since the beginning of 2017. The rolling averages remain marginally in contraction. Housing inventory is at historical lows for Junes – and if you do not have enough houses for sale – then that means home sales cannot improve.
Econintersect Analysis
- Unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 1.4 % month-over-month, down 5.0 % year-over-year – sales growth rate trend declined using the 3-month moving average.
- Unadjusted price rate of growth accelerated 0.6 % month-over-month, up 3.7 % year-over-year – price growth rate trend marginally slowed using the 3 month moving average.
- The homes for sale unadjusted inventory improved this month compared to last month, but remains historically low for Junes, and is up 0.5 % from inventory levels one year ago).
NAR reported:
- Sales down 0.6 % month-over-month, down 2.2 % year-over-year.
- Prices up 5.2 % year-over-year
- The market (from Nasdaq / Econoday) expected annualized sales volumes of 0.10 to 0.40 (consensus 5.450 million) vs the 5.38 million reported.
The graph below presents unadjusted home sales volumes.
Here are the headline words from the NAR analysts:
