(Click on image to enlarge)
Data from BLS, chart by MishThree Key Ideas
Headlines that Miss the Key Idea
Compare the Bloomberg headline “Job Openings Rise to Highest in Three months.”So what? The openings blip does not even register on the lead chart and it’s well into the realm of normal noise.Openings Changed LittleAccording to the “The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 million on the last business day of December. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively.”Job Listings Abound, but Many Are FakeOpenings are down from a record 11.755 million to a still very elevated 9.026 million. The Wall Street Journal reports
A mystery permeates the job market: You apply for a job and hear nothing, but the ad stays online for months. If you inquire, the company tells you it isn’t really hiring.
Not all job ads are attached to actual jobs, it turns out.
Too many analysts rely on job openings as a sign of labor market strength. That WSJ article was from March of 2023. It’s undoubtedly still true.Job Quits by Sector in Thousands(Click on image to enlarge)
Quits in the four big drivers of job growth, Leisure and hospitality, Accommodation and Food Service, education and Health Services, and Retail Trade are all back to pre-pandemic levels.Labor Leverage Ratio(Click on image to enlarge)
The Labor Leverage Ratio (LLR) is the number of quits divided by the number of discharges, firings, and layoffs initiated by employers.The BLS notes “the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.” The LLR is a refinement to the quits rate.There is no cost to posting ghost jobs. And the benefits are obvious: Employers can placate overworked employees, keep them motivated, give an impression of growth, and just in case.Openings are not real. Quits and the Labor Leverage Ratio provide a much more compelling story. Tax Cuts, Not Bidenomics Explains Surge in Consumer Spending in 2023On January 1, 2023, 38 states had noteworthy tax changes. 37 of the changes put extra money in people’s pockets. Here’s the result in pictures.(Click on image to enlarge)
Tax data from the BEA, chart by MishIn case you are wondering about the strength of the economy please see
On January 1, 2023, 38 states had noteworthy tax changes. 37 of the changes put extra money in people’s pockets.
On January 25, I noted Moral of the StoryIf you tax less, people will spend more.Now, if Congress can just do something about massive deficit spending and $34 trillion in debt.Debt Soaring Out of SightGDP is fueled by both consumer debt and government debt. Regarding government debt, Republicans are in on the deal.For example, Without passing anything but continuing resolutions, we went from a House Speake Kevin McCarthy’s proposal of $1.471 trillion bill to Mike Johnson’s $1.66 trillion bill that does not include, Ukraine, Israel, or the US border with Mexico.And not only did consumers spend their tax cuts, they also racked up credit card debt.Consumer Credit Hits Record $5 TrillionFor discussion, please see Consumers keep spending more and more, and much of that spending is online.Also see So, if you were at all inclined to think Bidenomics is to credit, please think again.More By This Author:Dealers Beg GM for Hybrid Vehicles, Can GM Do Anything Right?Texas Manufacturing Index Plunges To Lowest Level Since The Pandemic Tax Cuts, Not Bidenomics Explains Surge In Consumer Spending In 2023
