Export and Import container counts were mixed in January 2014. However, rolling averages were accelerating despite this mixed data.
For the month of January 2014:
- the economically intuitive imports growth accelerated 1.0% (after decelerating 9.2% in December) month-over-month, is up 4.6% compared to January 2013, and is up 4.6% year-to-date (3.9% up for December). There is a direct linkage between imports and USA economic activity – and growth in imports foretells real economic growth.
- Export growth (which is an indicator of competitiveness and global economic growth) decelerated 0.7% (after decelerating 3.9% in December) month-over-month, is down 0.7% compared to January 2013, and is down 0.7% year-to-date.
Even with the deceleration this month, both imports and exports are continuing on an accelerating trend line.
Unadjusted 3 Month Rolling Average for Container Counts Year-over-Year Change (comparing the 3 month average one year ago to the current 3 month average) – Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Combined – Imports (red line) and Exports (blue line)
/images/z container4.PNG
There is reasonable correlation between the container counts and the US Census trade data also being analyzed by Econintersect. But trade data lags several months after the more timely container counts.
Unadjusted Year-over-Year Change in Container Counts – Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Combined – Imports (red line) and Exports (blue bars)
/images/z container1.PNG
Econintersect considers import and exports significant elements in determining economic health (please see caveats below). the takeaway from the graphs below is that imports still have not returned to pre-2007 recession levels, while exports did recover.
Unadjusted Import Container Counts – Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Combined
/images/z container2.PNG
