New home sales data for January 2014 was mixed – the seasonally adjusted headlines are much prettier than the unadjusted data. This is an extremely volatile data series.
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Econintersect Analysis:
- unadjusted sales growth decelerated 0.9% (after last month’s revised deceleration of 7.1%) month-over-month.
- unadjusted year-over-year sales up 6.3%. Growth is at the lower end of the range seen during 2013.
- three month unadjusted trend rate of growth decelerated 6.2% month-over-month – is up 9.1% year-over-year.
Unadjusted Year-over-Year Rate of Growth – Sales (blue line) and 3 month rolling average of Sales (red line)
US Census Headlines:
- seasonally adjusted sales up 9.6% month-over-month
- seasonally adjusted year-over-year sales up 2.2%
- market expected seasonally adjusted annualized sales of 380K to 426K (consensus 400K) versus the actual at 468K.
The quantity of new single family homes for sale remains well below historical levels – but remains generally on an improving trend line.
Seasonally Adjusted New Homes for Sale
As the sales data is noisy (large monthly variations). The growth trend line (not drawn) is relatively flat over the last two years. The three month trend is now decelerating.
Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted New Home Sales Volumes (blue line) with zero growth line emphasized (red line)
The headlines of the data release:
Sales of new single-family houses in January 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9.6 percent (±17.9%)* above the revised December rate of 427,000 and is 2.2 percent (±20.2%)* above the January 2013 estimate of 458,000.
Unadjusted New Home Sales Monthly Volumes In Thousands
The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2014 was $260,100; the average sales price was $322,800. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 184,000.
